Sportradar’s AI-driven data simulations predict Kansas City as the most likely team to be crowned champions on February 9th, 2025, and in the process become the first to achieve a pro football “threepeat”.
Following 50,000 simulations of the 18-week, 272-game regular season, Kansas City emerged as the champion in 7,105 instances, indicating a 14.2 per cent probability. This edged out San Francisco (12.6 per cent) and Baltimore (8.0 per cent) according to Sportradar’s AI model.
Sportradar leverages insights from its network of 900 sportsbook operators, inputting tens of thousands of data points into its AI algorithm to analyse historical data and predict future scenarios for the 2024-25 pro football season.
The simulations, built on actual NFL data and team odds for winning the Super Bowl, estimate team strength and expected scoring. This model simulates upcoming games, updating team stats week-to-week, effectively navigating through the regular season and playoffs with a focus on empirical data.
Additional 2024-25 pro football simulations performed by Sportradar included:
Most Likely First Team to Ten Wins: Teams that reach ten wins have a 95.3 per cent chance of making the playoffs. Kansas City (15.1 per cent) is predicted to be the most likely to achieve this first, followed by San Francisco (10.1 per cent), Baltimore (7.7 per cent), Detroit (6.4 per cent), and Cincinnati (6.3 per cent).
Most Likely Strongest Divisions: AI simulations rank divisions by their win percentage against teams outside their division. Teams from stronger divisions often have better records, which can lead to higher playoff seeds and home-field advantage. The strongest are the American North (57.9 per cent), National North (55.2 per cent), American West (53.8 per cent), and National West (52.2 per cent).
Team Most Likely to Win First Championship: Among the 12 teams that have never won a pro football championship, Detroit (6.6 per cent) is the most likely to end the drought, followed by Cincinnati (6.0 per cent), Buffalo (5.0 per cent), Houston (4.9 per cent), and Atlanta (2.6 per cent).
Most Likely Championship Matchups: AI forecasts Kansas City vs. San Francisco as the most likely championship matchup (5.4 per cent), followed by Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (3.4 per cent), Baltimore vs. San Francisco (3.3 per cent), Kansas City vs. Detroit (3.1 per cent), and Cincinnati vs. San Francisco (2.6 per cent).