Q&A: Better Collective co-CEO on prediction markets performance and sadness for the UK

Dialling in via Google Meets ahead of the Better Collective Q2 analyst call last week, co-CEO Jesper Søgaard is in a positive mood after the affiliate’s earnings report showed increases across revenue, EBITDA and profit. The company behind brands such as Action Network and AceOdds said “revenue share, talent-led media and prediction markets” in North America were key drivers in the quarter.

Plug in the World Cup bolstering operations in June, and the firm looks to be on steadier footing after almost two years of ups and downs. Negative impacts from Brazil linger, where the regulatory regime hasn’t exactly shined since coming into effect, while the new 40% remote gaming duty in the UK led to a bite in revenue.

Still, Søgaard remains confident, with full-year 2026 guidance unchanged. The affiliate sector continues to face headwinds, not least from AI, but as competitors see their stocks crushed, Better Collective has managed to stave off a bloodbath. A “backloaded” H2 is hoped to complete a turnaround.

EGR: Jesper, a strong quarter with revenue, EBITDA and profit all up – what are your reflections on the reporting period?

Jesper Søgaard (JS): We were very pleased with this quarter. Obviously, we were excited about the World Cup – a lot of preparation went into it – and it was very much in line with our expectations.

It gave us good tailwind in the quarter, but at the same time we also saw the North American business doing well, especially on the earnings side, where we had a very strong margin expansion. For me, this is yet another quarter demonstrating we are we’re back on track, growing the business, growing earnings faster than revenue as well. A lot of change has happened in the business in the last 18 months to two years and we’re seeing that paying off now.

EGR: Let’s unpack some headwinds first. A €2m euro hit in the UK due to the remote gaming duty increase – how is this manifesting and do you need to mitigate at all?

JS: When we gave our annual guidance, we did flag that we had some expected tax headwind for the year, the tune of roughly €8m. We guided, but we didn’t know the size of the effect in the UK. It’s approximately as expected. It’s predominantly our paid business which is affected as that is very big in the UK.

We also see it especially in the auctions as it affects our direct cost because of the adjustments of bid prices. It is what it is. We knew there would be a change, but I think the paid media team managed this well, and we have mitigated that well. It’s an increased tax. Unfortunately, it can lead to more players looking for opportunities in the black market. So overall, I’m sad on behalf of the industry but, for us, it is what it is, and we adjust and adapt to these changes.

EGR: And Brazil, the impact is up sequentially from Q1 to €2m. When does the frustration you’ve spoken about previously turn into concern?

JS: We have the upcoming elections in Brazil. The tax revenue coming into the Brazilian state now is significant from the industry. I do believe, at the end of the day, that significant tax revenue is something the state is not going to scrap. So, despite all the positioning ahead of the election, I personally believe the market is here to stay. As always, there can be adjustments along the way, but it is a very significant contributor of tax revenue in Brazil now.

Looking specifically to our business, we will eventually get to a point where it’s part of the natural business and no longer a new comp compared to the previous quarter. We expect, from a comparison perspective, Brazil to be less of a headwind moving forward.

EGR: The opening stages of the World Cup sat within the quarter – can you give some colour on performance there?

JS: It went as we hoped. We saw good numbers on the NDC front during the World Cup. We also saw strong demand for our talent-led shows. We had a specific show where we basically brought influencers into a house for the entire World Cup and created a lot of exciting viral content that was super successful. Next year, we have the Women’s World Cup, so we definitely have some of the learnings from the men’s World Cup to take into the World Cup next year.

EGR: And given there will also be World Cup overlap into Q3, why are you keeping your full-year 2026 guidance unchanged for now? Why the steadiness?

JS: The guidance is reiterated. As always in our business, the second half is backloaded, especially towards the fourth quarter. We feel we’re in good shape and definitely on track to meet our guidance. If there are any change, the market will be the first to know. We are doing a lot of preparation for the start of the NFL, so let’s see how that that plays out.

EGR: Prediction markets continue to deliver opportunities for Better Collective. Are these partnerships operating in different ways to sportsbooks? What are you learning about the sector?

JS: They’re very focused and experienced in monitoring the performance of audience and traffic to their products, and that aligns well with the affiliate model.

We started the year with Kalshi. We now have Polymarket coming in. We very much welcome that competition and are excited about what impact it can have for our business in the second half of the year, especially with the positioning of the big sportsbooks and the prediction market players for the start of the NFL.

It’s a CPA-driven business, we recognise the revenue now with the players we send to the prediction markets. From a market dynamic perspective, it’s what we’d like to see: increased competition with a lot of strong access now in the market.

EGR: In terms of the prediction markets end user, are they engaging with Better Collective products differently to how a sports bettor would?

JS: I would say no, not drastic changes. It is fairly similar behaviour that we experience. I wouldn’t highlight any material differences from sports bettors.

EGR: “Talent-led media” was cited as strong performer during the quarter. Could you explain what sort of moat Better Collective has built there?

JS: There’s an even bigger story in that because it speaks to how we have been developing Better Collective. We very much acknowledged that we want a strong diversified business. We started out with a strong skill set within affiliation on the organic side, so pure publishing and inbound marketing, then we expand to paid media.

 We have been expanding to esports, we have expanded to talent-led shows, and then our most recent innovation is Playbook. We have a very diversified business, and it gives us a strong foundation and also an attractive position in the ecosystem. We can cater to our customers and the end users in many different ways due to the diversified nature of our business. That was a longer answer to your question, but the talent-led shows are a very good example of how we’ve diversified the business and the strength it gives Better Collective as a whole.

EGR: Finally, revenue share deals in North America are starting to sing, up 49%, albeit from a low base. How have you turned a corner here?

JS: We are coming from a low base, and we have seen in recent quarters, that ramp up. The expected ramp up going is not 49% every time. We want that stable development from here on. That is the expectation.

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 Jesper Søgaard tells EGR the remote gaming duty hike can be overcome through mitigation, but 40% rate is a boost for the black market operators
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