Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon has forecast prediction markets taker volume will hit $186.8bn (£141.09bn) in 2026, up from $22bn in 2025, as adoption of sports event contracts by US consumers has “continued to exceed expectations” since July.
The 2026 figure represents a near-750% increase year on year, with the likes of Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Novig among others now offering prediction markets across the US.
Beynon added that prediction market platforms across the US generated volume of $20.1bn in September. The figure represented a 21.1% increase compared to the previous month, boosted by the return of the NFL season.
Taker volume from sports event contracts amounted to $17bn during September, outstripping the $15.8bn generated by online sports betting operators in handle, Beynon noted.
Kalshi continued to be the dominant market leader, with its $10.7bn in volume accounting for 63% of the sports event contract market.
DraftKings generated $623m in volume, FanDuel made $436m during the month, with the rest of the market accounting for $5.2bn.
Beynon said those figures put DraftKings and FanDuel at around 4% and 3% market share, respectively. The caveat there being that both firms only offer sports event contracts in non-OSB states, whereas Kalshi is live across the vast majority of the 50 states.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins recently said the business was approaching a double-digit share in sports via DraftKings Predictions. The co-founder also told EGR the product has a “a lot of runway” left in terms of development. Link
Kalshi also led the way with app downloads during week four of the NFL season with 651,804, far ahead of second-placed Polymarket’s 223,056 downloads.
DraftKings had an 11% market share for app downloads with its duel sports betting and prediction market offering during the period at 184,281, followed by bet365 (146,344 downloads) and FanDuel (116,714).
While sports event contracts are expected to be the largest contributor to prediction market volume growth for the rest of the year, the analyst firm highlighted the 2026 US midterm election cycle as a factor which could promote a spike in political event trading.
Beynon explained: “Adoption has continued to exceed expectations, driven by football seasonality, improving liquidity, superior pricing and ongoing product innovation as customers increasingly embrace the exchange-based model.
“Kalshi remains the clear leader, accounting for ~63% of US sports-contract volume in Sept, versus ~4% for DraftKings and ~3% for FanDuel, but both operators remain limited by state-level availability. Importantly, this share is across the entire market, while DKNG/FLUT are 2x stated share in markets without legal OSB.
“Relative to current sports contract volume share, DraftKings and FanDuel download positions suggest they remain undermonetised participants in the category and could gain share as geographic availability expands and product awareness improves.”
Beynon also said the regulation of sports event contracts, with a Supreme Court showdown seemingly looming in the next few years, would be the “single largest risk to adoption and long-term prediction market potential”.
In September, reports suggested Kalshi was in advanced talks to raise up to $1bn from new and existing investors, leaving the company with a valuation of $40bn.
Novig is also set to raise its valuation, with reports earlier this month indicating its latest funding round would value the company at $2bn.
The regulator pushback against prediction markets continues in earnest, with the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) issuing 10 cease-and-desist orders to platforms last week.
Affected firms included Polymarket, Robinhood, Novig, Coinbase, Underdog and ProhpetX.
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Figures from analyst firm show Kalshi led the way with 63% market share for sports event contracts, with DraftKings garnering a double-digit share of app downloads in September
The post Macquarie: Prediction market taker volume to hit $187bn in 2026 first appeared on EGR Intel.