BetMGM, the North American JV between Entain and MGM Resorts International, kicked off Q1 2026 earnings season on Tuesday, 14 April. Net revenue was up 6% year on year (YoY) to $696m, albeit with a softer sports betting environment and increased competition in igaming. Prediction markets hit the 25-mention mark during the subsequent analyst call. Full-year 2026 guidance has been pared back slightly, but confidence in the $500m adjusted EBITDA 2027 target remains. Here, Joe Levy picks through the operator’s report and CEO Adam Greenblatt’s comments as EGR gets underway with earnings season coverage.
Colourful imagery
Greenblatt has been one of the more outspoken critics of prediction markets since their rapid ascent over the past 18 months. The CEO has insisted the JV will not make its way into the space, lest it risk the licences of its parents and go against state regulators and tribal entities. The stance has meant the JV has seen rivals DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics all push ahead with a prediction markets, going up against the likes of Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase.
“As an igaming-first operator that is approaching $2bn of annual igaming revenue, we are better positioned than most, if not all others, from the ever-escalating noise of prediction markets,” Greenblatt said on the call. He proceeded to hit out at prediction markets’ “hyper spend” tactics, including “buying sports betting keywords as well as throwing money at any sports media property that will take it”.
Greenblatt went on to lay out his forecast for how battle will conclude, insisting players the operator may have lost will return due to online sports betting being a superior product. He also pointed to examples of betting exchanges across the pond failing to dominate sports betting, as seen with Betfair in the UK.
He added: “My expectation is that the majority of [prediction markets] players will return over time because the product experience in online sports betting is better. Our ability to reinvest in that player is greater because we retain more margin than any single participant in prediction markets.
“The value proposition of BetMGM and, quite frankly, the online sports betting sector, is better for most players, but not all players. If you are a professional player, if you are a market maker, if you are a kid in high school, unfortunately, there isn’t really a better place for you than the prediction markets if you want to bet on sports. That’s not our customer.
“It’s going to end with the hardcore grinder poker environments where you have shark-on-shark violence. We look forward to an expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing of the pro-states’ rights, pro-tribal rights and anti-prediction markets case by SCOTUS [Supreme Court of the United States].”
Between a Hard Rock and a Fanatics
With igaming revenue up 9% YoY to $481m, it was still a positive performance for the JV. Management noted in the earnings report that BetMGM holds a “market-leading igaming offering” underpinned by exclusive content and refined player management. But competition is rife. Greenblatt alluded to Hard Rock Digital’s expansion into Michigan in December, which saw the Seminole Tribe-owned brand cause a splash with its marketing spend.
The brand surged into fourth place in the revenue table in its debut month with $35.7m, behind BetMGM on $45.4m. Fanatics has been a similar disruptor in the online casino space with its heavy promotional spend, particularly in the Northeast. Greenblatt said: “I think igaming is just reflecting that we haven’t seen a new state since 2022, and the market is competitive. It’s always been competitive. We’ve seen pockets of new competition in certain states.
“You may have seen that one of our competitors entered Michigan in December, spent a bunch of money, and then reinvested in players at a meaningful above-market rate. [They] won a lot of market share in their first month, and then lo and behold, as we expected, that impact is now easing.
“We’re just seeing a progressive evolution of the competitive situation in the market. We have seen pockets of new competition. We don’t expect them to be meaningful disruptors, and, as ever, we feel like our strategy is the right one.”
Tighten the purse strings
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was dropped slightly, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to come in towards the lower end of the $300m to $350m range. CFO Gary Deutsch expanded on the “continuing operational efficiencies” highlighted in the earnings report that would ensure BetMGM hit the revised guidance.
The majority of that, he said, would come from readjustments to the operator’s marketing spend, following a trend seen in 2025 after its significant investment push in 2024.
The CFO noted: “We’re going to focus on our areas of strength and we’re going to do less marketing in some of the broader OSB-only states for general batches of players. There’s going to be a reduction in marketing to that part, and that’s also going to drive our ability to stay on plan for the EBITDA guidance.
“Obviously, in a world of AI and a world of general rationalisation of how we do business, there are other areas where we look across the business on the cost front. The real leverage that’s going to drive us into that range is going to be the change in marketing trajectory.”
Pay the premium
BetMGM’s push for “premium mass players” in online sports betting is continuing to pay off, the business said, despite the threat of prediction markets. Greenblatt claimed the customers being lost to the likes of Kalshi were of lower value to BetMGM, and that the top of the pyramid was holding strong despite the challenge. Premium mass was first mentioned by BetMGM in its full-year 2024 update, as the company said it wanted to become “the home of the premium mass player”.
The CEO said: “We’re actually seeing the more premium parts of our database [are] incredibly resilient. The impact of our strategy is proving to be correct or resilient in these more turbulent times. We see no bottom of premium players. The higher up our value pyramid you go, the more resilient our players are proving to be. If you focus on the bottom end, there are two factors driving relative softness versus the top half of the pyramid.
“One may well be the spend of the prediction markets, the other may well be because the dynamic was happening before the prediction market spend and the work we’re doing on player management and ensuring we put the right dollars into the right players’ pockets by way of reinvestment.”
Multi-brand mania
When asked by Citi analyst Monique Pollard why BetMGM is confident on hitting its $500m adjusted EBITDA target in 2027, Greenblatt listed the expected points – a strong base, player value going up, a lean into omnichannel and Alberta going live later this year with commercial online gambling.
A perhaps less-expected callout went the way of the Borgata brand. While BetMGM remains the leading light for MGM Resorts International and Entain in the US, Borgata is somewhat a local hero in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The Borgata casino product is live in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In February, Borgata reported igaming revenue of $21.2m versus $30.7m for BetMGM in the Garden State.
Greenblatt added: “Alongside that, [we have] what I believe to be our sleeping giant of a casino brand, Borgata, [which is] particularly relevant in the Northeast. We’re refreshing that brand and repositioning it for a different audience to seek to expand our relevance to even more gamers versus the BetMGM core brand.”
DraftKings runs DraftKings Casino and Golden Nugget separately in five and four states, respectively, so the strategy of a multi-brand play in the US isn’t unique to BetMGM. The South African’s comments are similar to those of Entain CEO Stella David when she called out bwin as a “sleeping giant” in August 2025.
The post Five things we learned from BetMGM’s Q1 trading update first appeared on EGR Intel.
News editor Joe Levy pores over the operator’s latest report and earnings call, including increased igaming competition and why prediction markets will descend into “shark-on-shark violence”
The post Five things we learned from BetMGM’s Q1 trading update first appeared on EGR Intel.