BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt has forecast there should be a “progressive reduction of the addressable TAM for prediction markets” as the industry braces for a potential US Supreme Court ruling on sports event contracts.
Speaking on the operator’s Q3 earnings call on Tuesday 13 October, Greenblatt was once again bearish on the future viability of the exploding sector fronted by Kalshi.
BetMGM, along with Caesars Entertainment, has given a wide berth to prediction markets in the US, citing commitments to state-level and land-based licences.
Meanwhile, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have all launched respective prediction market offerings while continuing to operate in online sports betting and igaming.
Greenblatt said he expects a “number of other states” to push back against prediction markets following the Ninth and Sixth Circuit Courts’ rulings.
The Ninth Circuit Court backed Nevada in its fight against Kalshi to allow it to implement state regulations on the New York-based firm.
In September, the Sixth Circuit Court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee could also enforce regulations on prediction market platforms.
Those rulings are contrary to the Third Circuit Court giving its support to Kalshi in its fight against New Jersey.
This split is widely expected to accelerate a Supreme Court hearing on the legality of sports event contracts, with New Jersey having filed a writ of certiorari.
Greenblatt continued: “I am very much looking forward to this whole ambiguity being clarified by the Supreme Court.
“The overwhelming majority of cases being now determined in favour of states and attorneys general and tribes; we expect that outcome from the Supreme Court.
“I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress, and I think that will be shown not to be the case.
“We should see a progressive reduction of the addressable TAM for prediction markets as we wait for the Supreme Court to decide whether to take the case or not.”
Macquire has forecast that prediction markets taker volume could hit $186.8bn (£141bn) in 2026.
BetMGM said it had seen online sports betting handle rise 3% during Q3, which the CEO said he was “delighted with”.
Concerns over prediction markets cannibalising online sports betting have been raised, although DraftKings CEO Jason Robins recently said the firm had seen a 15% jump in NFL handle in the opening weeks of the season.
Greenblatt added: “We’ve seen Q3 handle growth at BetMGM despite both the reduction in marketing indirectly towards online sports betting and the prevalence and growth in investment of prediction markets.
“We’re really pleased with the shape of continued momentum as well as the resilience of our business.”
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Adam Greenblatt says he is looking forward to “ambiguity being clarified”, while claiming business is showing “resilience” in face of pressure as handle ticks up 3%
The post BetMGM CEO: Prediction markets TAM should reduce ahead of Supreme Court hearing first appeared on EGR Intel.