Following recent stock declines from Flutter Entertainment, Las Vegas Sands has again claimed the title of the world’s most valuable gambling company. The Asian-focused casino operator now boasts a market cap of $44.2 billion. Yet its biggest US growth dream, a Texas casino, is still far from its reach despite years of lobbying and millions spent.
With Texas lawmakers only convening in odd years, 2025 was a pivotal point in Sands’ expansion efforts. Sands’ controlling shareholder, Miriam Adelson, quadrupled her lobbying spend for this year’s session compared to 2023. Sands’ longtime government relations chief Andy Abboud told iGB in October 2024 that the chances of Texas gambling expansion were “greater than 50%”.
Lawmakers weren’t swayed, however, and any notion of legalising either casinos or sports betting was never considered. Sands’ highest-backed state Senate candidate also failed to even reach a run-off. Additionally, recent lottery scandals in the state have turned some officials further against gaming than before, and upcoming races for attorney general and lieutenant governor don’t look promising for the industry.
All of these developments have yet to deter Sands’ Texas casino dream. The company is again embarking on media campaigns, this time proclaiming that it could replicate its world-class Singapore resort Marina Bay Sands in the heart of the Lone Star State.
At the same time, Sands has this year given up hopes for a New York casino and abandoned its short-lived digital arm. Why, then, is Texas so enduringly attractive despite the lack of progress?
Texas has biggest pool of untapped population
The simplest explanation as to why Sands is still bullish on Texas is population. Its most recent estimates surpass 31 million residents, second only to California. The next most populous states, in order, are Florida, New York and Pennsylvania.
California and Florida are prohibitive to Sands, as both are markets where Indian tribes have exclusivity for Class III gaming. The company deemed New York to be unattractive due to the looming possibility of legalising iGaming, which is already legal in a Pennsylvania market crowded with all forms of gambling plus unregulated skill games.
Texas is both commercially untapped and conservative with gambling expansion, a perfect combination for a retail-only operator willing to make big investments.
“Looking at the US in general, Hawaii, Utah, downstate New York, Georgia and Texas are really the only greenfields left,” said Gene Johnson, executive vice president at consultancy Victor Strategies. “Texas is the biggest plum on the tree because of the lack of alternatives right now for the huge population and economic demographics.”
Johnson suggested that for Sands, the years of toil could be more than repaid by securing any kind of first-mover advantage. He surmised it’s “probably better to get half the pie in Texas” than a small slice of an existing or less attractive market.
Previous analysis from the Innovation Group estimated that the Texas casino market could generate $2.5 billion to $3 billion in annual tax revenue.
Market perhaps not as reliant on international traffic?
Another factor that could work in Sands’ favour is the idea that the Texas market might not be as reliant on international tourism as other places like Las Vegas, Singapore and New York. Las Vegas stakeholders in particular have seen the headaches that a dip in international visitation can cause. Texas’ extensive population, which does have wealth pockets in tech and oil but is mostly local, could make for a “super-regional” type of property.
“I think it’ll be a great domestic market,” said Las Vegas-based consultant Brendan Bussmann of B Global Advisors. “Not just from pure population centres like Dallas and Houston, but also what you’re attracting from a regional setting.”
For years, neighbouring gaming states like Oklahoma, Louisiana and New Mexico have profited immensely from Texas’ lack of gambling expansion by welcoming Texans across their borders. If the state were to legalise its own offerings, some of that outbound traffic could stay local.
Bussmann guessed that a Texas casino could see domestic traffic rates of 92%-93%. There are no current comparisons to that sort of scenario, he said, but returns could be “exceptional” if major players like Sands get the green light.
Johnson noted that there are some international opportunities, but overall “the bigger opportunity is for the domestic customer, all this population in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the Houston area, which you could serve with a very large integrated resort”.
Potential regulatory environment still very unclear
Perhaps the biggest unknown about a potential Texas casino market is the regulatory environment it would operate under.
Given how staunchly state officials have opposed gaming, it seems hard to imagine that the sector would be granted favourable regulatory conditions if and when it legalises. But with limited competition, those factors might not be as important for Sands as it would be in other markets.
Johnson surmised that Texas casinos would face a “tolerable” environment, though Sands might be “willing to risk a pretty high tax rate” in exchange for growth opportunities. In Nevada, casinos face a tax rate of 6.75% but there is ample competition. New York has yet to issue licences for its pending downstate casinos, but the three finalists will see tax rates of at least 25% and 10% for slots and tables, respectively.
For Bussmann, the more important issue is crafting a message that resonates with lawmakers to even get the conversation moving in a positive direction, which has yet to happen. It may take more than one voice to get the ball rolling, a concession Sands might be loathe to relinquish.
“There’s a way to get this done, but it has to take a multi-pronged approach, not just a one-solution opportunity,” Bussmann said. “You need multiple operators coming in and saying, ‘Here’s a pitch,’ as opposed to, ‘Here’s one, and we’re gonna do everything we can to get it’. I just think you need multiple parties in the process to give different perspectives.”
A potential Texas casino is Las Vegas Sands’ lone US growth plan. Analysts say the possibility is worth the cost and effort.