Black market operators in the UK are poised to outspend their regulated counterparts on advertising within the next two years, according to research conducted by global intelligence firm WARC.
The study was compiled using a mixture of company and media reports, Nielsen data, and third-party sources such as Thinkbox, Outsmart and Radiocentre.
The research, commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), showed that advertising spend on the gambling industry, both regulated and unregulated, is projected to reach £1.9bn by October 2026, up 5.4% from the previous year.
This encompasses all measured media channels including TV, online, radio, programmatic display marketing and search.
The regulated market will account for 52.3% of that total to the tune of £1.05bn, down 9.2% from 2024-25.
Conversely, unlicenced operators will spend £845m this year according to the data, up 32% from the year prior.
Per WARC’s projections, the regulated market is on track to account for less than 50% of all industry ad spend by October 2028.
Within three years, black market operators are projected to spend more than £1bn on advertising in the UK.
The WARC report said the majority of black market ad spend is online, especially on social media. Search advertising, including paid listings on Google, is the largest ad vertical, with total spend hitting £703m.
‘Not on GAMSTOP’ affiliates have grown rapidly in recent years to dominate search engine results, with ‘parasite SEO’ – the practice of taking over high authority websites and then flooding them with gambling ads – becoming widespread.
Across social media, unlicensed operators such as Rainbet and Stake are prominent. Both have previously deployed watermarks on viral videos, while Rainbet typically partners with aggregator accounts with thousands of followers.
When focusing on the sponsorship market, the study estimated total spend from industry operators will reach £260m by the end of 2027.
WARC noted that unregulated companies are growing in that area while regulated firms are spending less on sponsorships, with black market operators projected to make up more than half of all money spent on sponsorships by October 2027.
This figure will be impacted by the impending ban on front-of-shirt sponsorships from gambling firms for Premier League clubs, which comes into effect from the 2026-27 season.
While front-of-shirt deals will be prohibited, betting companies will still be permitted to be sleeve sponsors and official betting partners.
BGC CEO Grainne Hurst said the findings should “ring alarm bells in Westminster”.
“The real question is whether advertising is coming from regulated operators, who are held to strict standards, or from the harmful illegal black market, which operates entirely outside the rules,” she added.
“Targeting licensed operators when their advertising spend is already falling will not reduce overall advertising, it will simply bolster the harmful illegal black market which is aggressively targeting UK customers.
“The government must go further and faster to clamp down on the black market before it is too late.”
The BGC has repeatedly warned that black market activity in the UK would be significantly aided by tax increases, with a new 40% remote gaming duty announced by the government during the Autumn Budget, as well as general betting duty hitting 25% in April 2027.
A Flutter spokesperson added: “The WARC report proves that the illegal market is here, vibrant and growing at an alarming rate. The government’s Budget tax raid on the regulated sector will only fuel this worrying growth.”
WARC noted the research suggests a “tectonic shift” is occurring in the UK market.
A WARC spokesperson said: “While ad spend within the UK’s gambling sector is set to rise to £1.9bn this year, WARC research has found that there is a two-speed market at play, with almost all growth now being driven by unlicensed firms.
“These operators are predominately based overseas and are paying ever increasing amounts to reach UK consumers online via search and social media.
“Sponsorship too is heavily leveraged by unregulated firms who are, collectively, set to account for over half of sponsorship ad spend in the gambling sector next year.
“Most significantly, unlicenced operators are on course to account for over half of all ad spend within the gambling sector by 2028; a sign of the tectonic shift currently occurring within the market.”
The post UK black market ad spend projected to outstrip regulated market within two years first appeared on EGR Intel.
Research conducted by intelligence firm WARC on behalf of BGC estimates unlicensed operators will invest more than £845m in advertising this year, with the figure expected to exceed £1bn by 2028
The post UK black market ad spend projected to outstrip regulated market within two years first appeared on EGR Intel.