Robinhood’s share price surged almost 17% on Thursday, 4 September, after a series of favourable analyst notes ahead of NFL season helped the Nasdaq-listed firm hit a 2026 high.
Robinhood stock closed trading in New York at $124.72 (£92.22) yesterday, beating the previous 2026 peak of $123.24 in January.
The spike leaves the retail brokerage with a market cap of $112.1bn and its highest share price since 10 December 2025. In fact, the value of the company has swelled by around $20bn in just the past week.
The jump yesterday was partly fuelled by an analyst note from Morgan Stanley earlier this week in which the bank increased its target price on Robinhood from $124 to $150.
The note called out Robinhood’s prediction markets opportunity, with the group having launched Rothera this year.
In January, Robinhood partnered with quantitative trading firm Susquehanna to purchase a 90% stake in Miami International Holdings derivatives exchanges (MIAX) to launch the JV.
Robinhood was previously one of the largest drivers of activity, engagement and volume on Kalshi’s exchange, although the firm has begun shifting this in-house to Rothera.
The Morgan Stanley note read: “We see increasing evidence that broader product capabilities are improving the economics of Robinhood’s installed customer base supporting more assets per customer, more activity per customer and greater economics captured per activity.”
The analyst firm’s view was followed up by another positive note from Piper Sandler, which pointed to Robinhood’s positioning ahead of the NFL returning and upgraded the target price to $145.
The Piper Sandler note estimated that roughly 23% of prediction market volume has switched to Rothera from Kalshi since June.
The note read: “Last year during football season, Robinhood users made up between 22% and 30% of all volume traded on Kalshi, a share that has decreased to the mid-single digits behind Kalshi’s quest to acquire more of its own users.
“Given Kalshi and Robinhood’s US-centric user base, and the large gap in popularity between soccer and football in the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a leading indicator of what’s to come – the NFL/[college Football] season should be a significant catalyst for Robinhood’s Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 prediction market revenue.”
During the World Cup, Kalshi said it had onboarded more than three million new users, while more than $1.2bn was traded on which country would lift the trophy. Overall tournament trading volume for Kalshi hit $27bn, as reported by Reuters.
The World Cup, which was staged across the US, Canada and Mexico, saw Kalshi gain in-stadia advertising opportunities via its tie-up with Gibraltar-licensed ADI Predictstreet. Trading volume on Rothera also soared during the tournament.
Included within Robinhood’s monthly metrics data for July, the firm said event contracts traded were down 5% on June but up more than 20x compared to July 2025 to 6.1 billion.
Deutsche Bank also flagged that event contracts on public companies’ KPIs could become Robinhood’s largest category in prediction markets.
While these types of markets are not yet live on Robinhood, analyst Brian Bedell was bullish on the future in his note.
“For the US, we believe company KPI contract volume could surpass one trillion in 2028 from virtually nothing today, exceeding sports volumes, even in any positive SCOTUS ruling in favour of national regulation,” he wrote.
Robinhood currently offers financial markets related to the price of oil and gas, inflation rates, Nasdaq closing prices and precious metal prices, to name a few.
The surge in Robinhood’s shares comes against the backdrop of New Jersey filing a petition for writ of certiorari for the Supreme Court to intervene on sports event contracts.
New Jersey filed the petition after the Ninth Circuit sided with Nevada in its fight against Kalshi – a decision at odds to the Third Circuit backing Kalshi in its battle with New Jersey.
There is no guarantee the Supreme Court will hear the case, but the possibility of such a legal challenge coming to pass could disrupt the booming prediction markets sector.
Kalshi is currently valued at $22bn, while Polymarket is set to close a funding round valuing the platform at $21bn. President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, is an adviser to both businesses.
The Supreme Court has three President Trump-appointed judges, while the Ninth Circuit trio involved in the Nevada case were all selected by the president.
Robinhood chair and CEO Vlad Tenev is set to speak at a Goldman Sachs conference next week.
The post Robinhood stock soars 17% as analysts champion NFL opportunities first appeared on EGR Intel.
Retail brokerage giant benefits from upgraded target prices and expectations that its prediction markets exchange Rothera can be a success this football season
The post Robinhood stock soars 17% as analysts champion NFL opportunities first appeared on EGR Intel.