There is an 85% chance that Brazil’s online gambling ban will be reversed within weeks or months, according to Regulus Partners.
In a note published on Saturday 26 September following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s provisional measure announced the previous day, the strategic advisory firm outlined two main paths to that outcome.
In the first, the election goes to a run-off, Lula wins, and a continued centrist majority in Congress overturns the ban. Regulus gave this a 40% likelihood.
In the second, Lula’s rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the former right-wing populist president Jair Bolsonaro, wins the 4 October election and reverses the ban. This is given a 45% likelihood.
Regulus Partners estimated there is just a 5% chance the prohibition becomes permanent, which would require Lula to win outright on 4 October and Congress to accept the ban.
Finally, the firm assessed there is potentially a 10% likelihood the industry would be successful in court, and the provisional measure is overturned in the coming days.
Lula, who is seeking a historic fourth term in office, said betting had become “a cancer” that needed to be “removed”, yet Bolsonaro slammed the provisional measure as a “desperate” move by an incumbent who has fallen behind in the polls.
Polling currently puts Lula’s chances of victory at 40%, which would seem to indicate the election is headed for a run-off on 25 October. Prediction markets have Bolsonaro as the 57% favourite to win outright.
Under Lula’s provisional measure, player accounts must be closed by 5 October and all sites and apps offline the following day. Operators will also receive no refunds of compensation for licence fees, which cost BRL30m (£4.4m) each.
The government awarded 85 licences, valid for five years, which means operators have paid BRL2.5bn (£365m) in licence fees alone in the run up and after the market went live in January 2025.
Regulus Partners said Lula “does not seem to care” what an industry worth $5.7bn (£4.3bn) in terms of net revenue does now, with Brazil-facing staff and long-term contract liabilities.
“Over $2bn in direct taxes and more than 10,000 jobs as well as the financial health of suppliers and marketing partners have been put at risk for a political stunt,” the note read.
The firm also suggested it is “misleading” to say gambling – an industry which launched under Lula’s watch – has exploded in Brazil given that customer deposits fell 12% year on year in H1 2026, while gross gaming revenue has grown “only” 6% over the same period.
The note added: “The key issue, ironically, is that gambling problems are now visible rather than brushed under the carpet of illegal engagement; they are also not adequately managed by the weak regulatory regime Lula da Silva signed into law.
“The politician who helped to design the mess of fiscal contradictions and regulatory flaws that is legal gambling in Brazil now wants to castigate it; blaming the actors for following his script.”
Regulus Partners estimates the South American country’s black market is worth more than $25bn in revenue. This includes illegal lottery game Jogo do Bicho, crypto-led online gambling and illegal slot machines.
The illegal market will be “by far the biggest winner of the disruption caused by Lula’s ban”, Regulus Partners highlighted, while suggesting the international giants such as Kaizen Gaming, bet365 and Flutter have the resources to weather an extended blackout – unlike many of the domestic companies in Brazil.
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Strategic advisory firm gives only 5% chance that Lula’s provisional measure shutting down online gambling becomes a permanent ban and slams president for “political stunt”
The post Regulus Partners: An 85% chance Brazil’s gambling ban only lasts weeks or months first appeared on EGR Intel.