Genius Sports CEO and co-founder Mark Locke believes prediction markets will remain a “a meaningful part of US sports trading” despite ongoing legal uncertainty.
His comments come as regulators across the US and the wider gambling industry, grapple with the legality of sports events contracts.
Platforms including Kalshi, Robhinhood and Crypto.com have been issued cease-and-desist orders in multiple US states and earlier in September, the New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport called on the Supreme Court to rule on prediction markets.
Writing in an update published on Genius Sports’ website, Locke argued prediction markets are “here to stay” but regulation will change how they are presented to the public.
“The future of sports prediction markets is being discussed as though it hangs on a single legal answer: either today’s model survives or the opportunity disappears,” he wrote.
“After 25 years across sports, betting and technology, my conclusion is different. Prediction markets will remain a meaningful part of US sports trading, but I do not expect today’s structure to survive unchanged. Some current advantages will disappear, and today’s winners may not be tomorrow’s.
“Prediction markets did not invent the desire to wager on a sporting outcome. They offer another way to express it, and what is durable is the demand underneath.
“Customers want to take positions on sporting outcomes; capital wants to provide liquidity around them; and distributors want those customers. Regulation can change the route the activity takes without removing the activity.”
Locke stressed a decision from the Supreme Court would “settle” ongoing disputes, such as in Connecticut, where the state is suing Kalshi for offering “unlicensed sports wagers”.
Despite Kalshi and other platforms claiming sports event contracts are ‘swaps’ regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) and therefore do not require state-level sports betting licences – states have pushed back and argued they are sports betting.
Locked added: “A substantive victory for prediction market platforms at the Supreme Court would settle which laws apply to sports event contracts offered on CFTC-registered exchanges.
“It would leave product rules, taxes and consumer safeguards open, and the CTFC is already proposing a more detailed framework for event contracts.
“The politics resist a partisan forecast. Kalshi’s advisers include Donald Trump Jr and the Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter, while the bill to prohibit sports and casino-style contracts has bipartisan sponsors. This is bipartisan institutionalisation without bipartisan agreement.
“Recent state action (such as in Connecticut) has indicated increased reporting and information demands on licensed suppliers and other businesses connected with prediction markets. These requests demonstrate a closer scrutiny of the wider prediction market ecosystem. At this stage, the states are looking for assistance in evaluating the industry.”
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In a new missive on the supplier’s website, Mark Locke says trading on event contracts is here to stay but a Supreme Court ruling is needed to resolve regulatory uncertainty
The post Prediction markets will remain a “meaningful part” of US sports betting, says Genius Sports CEO first appeared on EGR Intel.