Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi collectively took in more than $40m (£30.2m) worth of trades regarding the outcome of the next Pope.
Last week, Chicago-born Cardinal Robert Prevost was eventually chosen by the papal conclave after four days of deliberation in Rome.
The 69-year-old became the first ever Pope to come from the US, succeeding the late Pope Francis and taking on the moniker of Pope Leo XIV.
Polymarket took in $30m worth of trades on who would be named the next Pope, while Kalshi handled $10.6m.
There were 33,000 trades placed on the papal market, with only 416 people correctly predicting Prevost – who had odds of less than 1% – as Pope Francis’ successor.
Kalshi’s biggest payout was $52,641 on an anonymous customer’s successful prediction of $526.
On the day the decision was announced, 8 May, Kalshi’s platform experienced several technical difficulties.
According to Dustin Gouker of Closing Line Consulting, the platform informed customers it had “halted trading due to technical issues”, in addition to both the Kalshi website and app being inaccessible for a period of time in the runup to the announcement.
At the time, a Kalshi statement said: “We are in active discussion with our regulator about the outage, as any US financial exchange would be in this circumstance.”
The issues with the app and website were ongoing when the announcement of Prevost was broadcast.
Writing on LinkedIn, Gouker said: “It’s hard to quantify, but clearly some cohort of users were having trouble accessing the site or trading into or out of positions for some amount of time before the white smoke and after the announcement of Prevost.
“Users on Discord were complaining about the site/app being down during this time period. Not great! Imagine the outrage if this exact scenario had happened via a state-regulated sportsbook.”
Last week, Kalshi secured a key legal victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The regulator filed a motion for voluntary dismissal with the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, bringing an end to the legal case between the two which dated back to November 2023.
Kalshi had originally sued the CFTC after the derivatives regulator said the platform was prohibited from offering markets on the outcome of the US presidential election.
The company scored another significant legal victory in New Jersey last month after it was granted a temporary restraining order (TRO) and a preliminary injunction against the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (NJDGE) last month.
The New Jersey regulator had followed the lead of the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) and issued Kalshi with a cease-and-desist order.
Kalshi was also eventually granted a TRO in Nevada following the successful conclusion of a lawsuit against the NGCB, allowing the platform to continue operating in the Silver State.
The company additionally filed a lawsuit against the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission (MLGCC) after receiving yet another cease-and-desist order.
The states of Ohio, Illinois and Montana have also sent Kalshi cease-and-desist orders so far this year.
The post Prediction market platforms take $40m in trades for new Pope decision first appeared on EGR Intel.
Polymarket and Kalshi rake in $30m and $10.6m, respectively, as 1.26% of players correctly predict the papal appointment of Cardinal Robert Prevost
The post Prediction market platforms take $40m in trades for new Pope decision first appeared on EGR Intel.