Polymarket has withdrawn its self-certification to offer markets on player availability ahead of the new NFL season. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requested that the company refrain from offering the markets, which go against its policy of allowing trading on player injuries. Despite this, Kalshi continues to offer similar markets.
Polymarket submitted the self-certification on Tuesday last week, which would have allowed it to offer markets in the format, “Will {participant} participate in {event}?”
Initially, this focused on Patrick Mahomes‘ playing status in week 1 of the NFL season. Mahomes now looks likely to play after recovering from an ACL injury. Kalshi continues to offer wagering on whether he will feature, with the market now giving him a 94% chance of playing.
CFTC Makes Rare Intervention Against New Market
The filing’s status is now set to withdrawn. A Polymarket spokesperson told ESPN that the company withdrew the filing to be in full compliance with the CFTC.
It marks one of the first times the CFTC has opposed a prediction market operator’s self-certifications. The agency has come under criticism for allowing companies to offer a wide range of sports markets, including player props and parlays.
The CFTC did oppose Kalshi’s offering of mention markets on what sports commentators will say during live broadcasts. The company no longer offers the markets, but does offer a wide range of mention markets in other categories, such as on Donald Trump‘s speeches.
Kalshi Keeps Player Availability Markets Live
The CFTC also reportedly spoke with one other major prediction market operator about offering markets on player availability. Kalshi first self-certified its “Will [athlete] compete in [event]?” contract template in February this year.
It currently has a market on the players to compete in week one, including Mahomes and others with injury concerns heading into the season.
Additionally, the platform offers trading on when players will return from injury, such as Malik Nabers. It also offers similar markets in other sports, including a market on when Carlos Alcaraz will next play in a tennis tournament.
The markets have relatively low liquidity, but gaming attorney Peter Hammon described them as a viable hedging opportunity for stakeholders, such as corporate sponsors and media rights holders.
CFTC Rules Prohibit Player Injury Markets
In its proposed rules, the CFTC says markets directly related to player injuries are contrary to the public interest. It warned that such markets could “create perverse financial incentives that could encourage or facilitate physical harm to athletes.”
Kalshi’s markets do not explicitly mention injury, and they have no markets on whether a player will be injured during a game. The markets do appear when searching the site for the word injury, however.
The markets also appear highly susceptible to insider use of privileged information to trade on outcomes or share it with bettors.
Kalshi’s rules on its player participation markets state that team or league staff and their immediate family are prohibited from trading. In addition, the rules state that, “Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.”
While sportsbooks do not offer these sorts of markets, bettors have found ways to effectively wager on the same thing. Terry Rozier allegedly informed gamblers that he would feign injury and exit a game early, allowing bettors to profit from wagers on his under props. Rozier denies the allegations.
In a related scandal, team insiders informed bettors about the playing status of key players ahead of NBA games. With the privileged information, gamblers could wager before the lines moved when the team lineup became public.
The Kalshi markets offer a more direct way to wager on an athlete’s playing status. Kalshi did not respond when asked if it plans to continue offering the markets.
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Polymarket has withdrawn its self-certification to offer markets on player availability ahead of the new NFL season. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requested that the company refrain from offering the markets, which go against its policy of allowing trading on player injuries. Despite this, Kalshi continues to offer similar markets. Polymarket submitted the self-certification
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