Prediction markets recorded their strongest month on record in October, as the return of college football and the NFL helped drive a sharp increase in trading activity.
Whopping 55% YoT Rise
Average daily volume (ADV) across yes-or-no exchanges climbed 55% month over month to $4.13 billion, according to a report by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.
Open interest also reached a new high, rising 45% from September to $3.27 billion. The figures point to growing activity across the sector, although much of the market remains concentrated among its largest operators.
Polymarket continued to hold a significant position wit its average daily volume reaching $655 million in October, up 50% from the previous month and 395% year over year. Its share of the platforms tracked by Jefferies remained at 17%.
Other platforms covered in the report recorded a combined ADV of $309 million, a 56% monthly increase and a 710% jump compared with October 2025. Their combined market share held steady at around 7%.
Rothera, a prediction market launched in June as a joint venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, also reported growth. Its average daily volume rose 55% month over month to $49 million, representing 1.2% of industry volume, compared with 1.5% in September.
Sports, Still the Main Driver
Sports contracts continued to account for the largest portion of prediction market activity. Average daily volume in the category increased 55% in October to approximately $2.98 billion, supported by the NFL and college football seasons, as well as the start of the 2026-27 NBA campaign.
Sports contracts represented 78% of total market volume, unchanged from September. Their share of open interest, however, increased to 83%, up from 73% a month earlier.
Jefferies also noted that activity in combination contracts, which resemble parlays offered by traditional sportsbooks, tends to rise over weekends. This suggests that traders are increasingly using multi-leg positions for football-related predictions.
DraftKings’ DKeX appears to be benefiting from this pattern. According to Fannon, the platform has a higher proportion of combination contracts on both weekdays and weekends, indicating a product mix with a stronger focus on sports and multi-event trading.
Political Contracts Support Non-Sports Activity
Non-sports markets also grew substantially last month, with average daily volume in these categories going up 55% month over month to $843 million, matching the growth rate seen in sports contracts.
The upcoming US midterm election cycle and continued interest in political outcomes may help explain some of the activity.
With Election Day taking place on Wednesday, November 4, attention could now shift toward other non-sports categories, including cryptocurrency and financial market contracts.
Despite the growth beyond sports, the figures underline how heavily prediction markets still depend on sporting events. For operators looking to expand their audiences, broadening activity into politics, finance and other subjects is still an essential part of the market’s development.
Prediction markets recorded their strongest month on record in October, as the return of college football and the NFL helped drive a sharp increase in trading activity. Whopping 55% YoT Rise Average daily volume (ADV) across yes-or-no exchanges climbed 55% month over month to $4.13 billion, according to a report by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.