The Dutch government is set for a gambling tax black hole of more than €200 million, following the staggered tax increase brought into force in January. According to reports, the KSA will announce a steep fall in revenue during the year so far.
According to Dutch publication Financieele Dagblad, figures from the Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) trade body have suggested gross gaming revenue in the first half of 2025 will be down 25% compared to last year.
As a result, KSA tax revenue will be at just 83% of the revenue collected from the same period in 2024, despite a 4% tax increase to 34.2% of GGR from 1 January. The rate for operators will increase further to 37.8% of GGR tax from 1 January 2026.
The Ministry of Finance had expected to collect an additional €200 million annually between 2025-28, it said in September when the tax hike was approved.
But figures to be released this week in the KSA’s impact assessment of the tax increase are expected to confirm fears that the government will miss its target by some way. This was confirmed to the newspaper by a KSA spokesperson.
Why is Dutch GGR declining?
VNLOK has expressed concerns that the Dutch legal market is declining due to restrictive measures enacted over the last year.
Bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorships, as well as the introduction of deposit limits and an increased tax burden are causing licensed operators to lose market share to unlicensed rivals, according to VNLOK.
The KSA’s spring report in April revealed that H2 2024 gross gaming revenue was 10% lower than in the first half of the year, with October’s implementation of new protection measures playing a key role in the drop.
Since 1 October, players have been prohibited from depositing more than €700 (£601.28/$796.24) in a single calendar month. The limit dropped to €300 for those aged between 18 and 25.
The combination of the new measures and a different methodology led the KSA to estimate the channelisation rate for legal operators, based on GGR, was 58% in H1 of 2024. This then dropped to just 50% in the second half of the year.
But the average number of player accounts remained relatively stable, edging up to 1.19 million from 1.1 million six months prior. This, the KSA said, is due to higher-value players having switched their focus to illegal offerings. This is in order to bypass the deposit limits.
Taking to LinkedIn Monday, trade body Brancheorganisatie VAN Kansspelen said the data showed the tax increase was “doubly unwise”.
The body added: “[The] increase is ineffective, inefficient and even completely counterproductive, both in terms of the budget and with regard to gambling policy objectives.”
Why is the Government increasing the Dutch gambling tax?
The Netherlands’ gambling tax hike is to be implemented in two phases, with licensees facing another increase to 37.8% of GGR from 1 January 2026. The increase was imposed despite government-commissioned research warning it will push licensees out the market.
The tax will hit all verticals and channels, from casinos and gambling halls to lottery and online. In introducing the change last year, the government said it expects to generate additional tax revenue of €202 million per year between 2025 and 2028.
However, a report published last year by research agency Atlas Research warned the tax increase could push online operators to exit the market.
Presented during the budget, the report said operators “will have to take measures to stay out of the red”.
Players could be pushed into betting via the black market, it said, as operators attempt to pass on the increased costs to players.
New figures suggest the Netherlands’ gambling tax hike has resulted in a €200 million black hole compared to last year’s tax revenue.