Elon Musk’s social media platform X has partnered with the prediction market platform Polymarket, weeks after a rolled-back announcement with Kalshi.
In a deal announced today, Polymarket said it will serve as the social media platform’s official prediction market partner.
“We are pleased to partner with Polymarket and look forward to bringing their our data and technology to Polymarket users through a range of creative product integrations,” X CEO Linda Yaccarino said.
Polymarket and X plan to launch an integrated product that provides “data-driven” insights to the cryptocurrency-focused prediction betting platform. Polymarket predictions will utilise the social media platform’s data to create live insights and incorporate real-time annotations on prediction market offerings.
“Combining Polymarket’s accurate, unbiased and real-time prediction market probabilities with Grok’s analysis and X’s real-time insights will enable us to provide contextualised, data-driven insights to millions of Polymarket users around the world instantaneously,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said.
Polymarket not legal in the US
The platform is not technically legal in the US and is not registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Based in New York, Polymarket settled with the CFTC in January 2022 and agreed to block US users from accessing the site.
Instead, the exchange has pivoted its focus internationally and with great success. Over the course of the November US elections, Polymarket took in billions of dollars in trading volume, including one high-profile trade in which an unknown “whale” bettor from France won $85 million on Trump’s victory. As with other prediction markets, Polymarket has since begun to offer sports contracts as well.
Unlike other, CFTC-registered exchanges, Polymarket primarily utilises cryptocurrency for trades, which detractors say invites a host of KYC and AML concerns. The range of contracts on the site has also been heavily criticised. Grim examples include bets on certain elements of the California wildfires in January and the timing of the death of Pope Francis in the spring.
Trump and Musk fallout
The prediction market Kalshi had announced that it was partnering with Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence firm xAI on 20 May. However, that announcement was then rolled back that same day with no other details.
The news of the latest X prediction market partnership comes just days after Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump engaged in a public dispute on social media over a Republican Party spending bill that recently passed through the House.
The Trump family, in particular Donald Trump Jr, has previously backed Kalshi. Trump Jr was appointed as a strategic advisor to Kalshi in January.
He wrote on X 13 January: “On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market @Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.
“I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to announce that I am joining Kalshi as a strategic advisor.”
The public spat between President Trump and Elon Musk grew to increased heights yesterday, with both calling each other out on their own personal social media platforms Truth Social and X.
Musk stated that Trump only won the presidency because of his financial backing, while Trump threatened to cut all government subsidies and contracts that flow to companies owned by Musk.
Musk continued the spat by insinuating on X that Trump had a deeper connection with Jeffrey Epstein by posting, “Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.”
Time to drop the really big bomb:@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.
Have a nice day, DJT!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 5, 2025
Could partnership be part of larger Trump Musk fallout?