The 2024 US presidential election marked a moment of significant change, not just in geopolitics but also for gambling. Prediction markets allowed for the trading of billions of dollars on the outcome of the contest, pushing these products from niche to cultural powerhouses. Adding sports event contracts just before Christmas 2024 was another pivotal landmark.
Fast forward to the start of 2026, and prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing verticals the industry has seen in recent years. Dominated by Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, sports betting is effectively available in all 50 US states, under the purview of federal derivatives regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The post-PASPA rulebook has been torn up.
In turn, tier-one, traditional sports betting operators like FanDuel and DraftKings have done their utmost to get in on the action, both launching their respective event contract platforms towards the end of last year.
Not to miss out on all the fun, betting exchange Matchbook announced plans to throw its hat into the prediction markets ring before Christmas 2025. CEO Ronan McDonagh revealed the company had set its sights on the US market and would use the UK to soft launch before taking its exchange stateside.
With the UK launch pencilled in by the end of March via its easyBet JV with budget airline easyJet, and the CFTC licence application almost complete, Matchbook aims to launch in the US as a designated contracts market (DCM) by Q3 2026. Already collaborating with US partner RSBIX, Matchbook is also on the lookout for partners to aid with marketing and player acquisition strategy.
Elsewhere, the exchange has been busy outside of its prediction markets plans, launching in Brazil and Mexico last year, in addition to marking a year of easyBet being live. Matchbook’s head of strategy, Jesse May, expresses the utmost confidence in the Matchbook product when speaking to EGR at ICE Barcelona. Given the saturation in the US market, he attests Matchbook will be able to hold its own – with consumers and operators alike – by sticking to what it knows.
EGR: How are plans to launch a prediction markets platform in the US progressing?
Jesse May (JM): We’re looking to launch in July. We’re about 80% of the way through the CFTC licensing process, and we’ve been working on it since last summer. We think we’ll have that wrapped up and be ready for launching in the US this summer. In terms of the UK, we’re launching through our existing Gambling Commission licence. The UK market is more like a brand.
While we think it could take off in the UK, we see it as an opportunity to announce to operators that if they want a prediction markets vertical on their platform, then we’re an option. I think within a couple of years everyone is going to want to add a prediction markets vertical to their offering in some way, and that’s what I’m excited about. If you look at what’s going on with prediction markets right now, it’s just another gambling product with a slightly different audience. I think it’s got legs.
EGR: Do you think it has the potential to take off in the UK like it has done in the US?
JM: No. Part of the appeal in the US is about servicing customers who don’t have access to gambling [in their state], whereas that isn’t the case in the UK. If you look at a lot of the current prediction markets that are facing the US, they’re trying hard to make it look like a sportsbook. Our view is this is a separate product. We’re not trying to make it look like a sportsbook – we want it to be a prediction market. The key to prediction markets is that everything needs to be as simple as a ‘yes or no’ outcome. It’s all about getting the right presentation and getting people interested in the idea before introducing it to a new audience.
In the US, you’re dealing with people who like to gamble as they do with sports betting, but that can’t happen in places like California or Texas. In the UK, we’re looking for a different sort of customer. Sometime in February or March we’ll be launching easyBet Predictions through our partnership with easyBet, and we think that’s what’s going to work for us. Prediction markets fit in really well with the ‘easy’ brand; it’s simple and has good value.
EGR: Will you be offering sports event contracts?
JM: Yes. If you look at DraftKings’ prediction markets product for example, and the way they present odds, a lot of the time they’re presenting American odds and trying to make the platform look like a sportsbook, even though it’s an exchange. Their background is sportsbook.
At Matchbook, we’ve been running exchanges for 20 years – that’s our background. All the things that make an exchange an exchange are what we focus on: liquidity, pricing and then the prediction markets layer is that everything is ‘yes or no’, presented as odds and percentages, instead of American odds.
In terms of markets, we are focusing on sports. We aren’t going to be the guys doing the funny Elon Musk bets and things like that. The reason isn’t because we’re against that stuff, it’s more we believe you’re only as strong as the integrity of your markets. Market integrity is how you settle the markets.
My view is that with a lot of the crazy prediction markets you read about in the press is there’s a lot of ambiguity about how they’re going to be settled. There’s been a lot of problems and a fair few issues with insider information [allegations]. Just look at everything that happened with Polymarket with the invasion in Venezuela. We’re trying to make sure we give the user a fair experience.
EGR: Will you have in-house market makers?
JM: We have close partnerships with a lot of market makers, which is how we do our exchanges. Our prediction markets product will be similar. We like to believe if you are someone who is one of the strongest market makers in the world, Matchbook should be the best place for you to monetise your model. Because of that, that’s how you get the best price. When you only have a single in-house market maker, you’re essentially just a sportsbook.
EGR: How will Matchbook look to set itself apart in such a competitive US marketplace?
JM: I have no doubt Matchbook has the best product because we’ve been working on our exchange technology for 20 years now. In addition to our ability to produce markets with the best price and deepest liquidity, our speed is so fast, and that is relevant with in-play markets.
Most of these prediction markets, especially the ones built on blockchain, their in-play products aren’t fast enough and they look like a sportsbook. We believe people want to play in-play. Those who are price sensitive should come to Matchbook. I have no worries about the product catching on.
What I do worry about is the cost of marketing. If you go into the US and you don’t have a $100m [marketing] budget, you’re going to be standing in a well and shouting. That’s a challenge we’ll have to solve. I think when people hear about Matchbook, become aware of it and try it versus other platforms, the people who have the same priorities we do – fairness, price, size, not restricting customers, strong in-play markets, speed – we’ll be able to get those players.
EGR: Are you worried about Matchbook’s lack of brand presence in the US market compared to the competition?
JM: I’m impressed by the way the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi have handled their brand, marketing strategy and social media. I don’t think it’s bad for Matchbook, because I don’t look at other places as competition – I think we’re growing the market for everyone.
EGR: Does the regulatory pushback against prediction markets in certain states provide cause for concern?
JM: A lot of these states have a monopoly they don’t deserve, and they’re not giving customers the best price. Even though Matchbook can restrict customers, we like to say we restrict fewer customers than any other platform, and that’s because we found a way to accommodate as many different types of players as possible. In the US it’s the exact opposite. You’ve probably seen a lot of people complaining about restrictive accounts and not being able to bet.
The regulations could change but, in terms of the service, people eventually want a place where they’re welcome. Prediction markets, especially the way we run them as an exchange, welcome more customers. When the smoke clears, we’re going to have a product people want to play on. Whether they’ll be allowed to or not, I can’t say. However, the world’s a big place. I’m quite excited about regions like Latin America, Africa and Asia. When they start regulating prediction markets in these places, we’re going to be in those spaces.
EGR: How has the easyBet partnership delivered thus far?
JM: They’re a great brand. In terms of how its going, it’s a year old but we don’t feel like we’ve got our brand out there yet. This year we’re going big. When easyBet Predictions launches, that’s going to be the shopfront to help draw people in. The reason the partnership works is because everything we’re about is everything they’re about.
Easy is synonymous with value, as are we. Easy likes simplicity, and even though some people think an exchange is complicated, the predictions stuff is very simple. They’re a business we’re delighted to be in partnership with, so hopefully 2026 is a big year.
EGR: After launching in Brazil, are there any other markets you’re targeting?
JM: We have licences in the UK, Alderney and now Brazil and Mexico. Those are huge for us and a massive part of our focus. We’re very strong in horseracing, which is so big in the UK, and that’s why we want to stay in the UK. We love the UK, but everybody knows it’s a very difficult market at the moment.
We’re able to operate in difficult markets, but we don’t see the growth in the UK that you would see in Brazil and Mexico – that’s just the way it is at present because those markets are exploding at the moment. The UK is our base and we love horseracing, so we’re not going anywhere.
In terms of other markets, we’re looking at South Africa, Africa in general as well as other parts of Latam. We like to think that anywhere there’s a regulated market, we can get in there with an operator, have a partnership and deliver, either an exchange or predictions market platform. We’ll go where the wind blows.
EGR: The UK tax increases announced in November’s Autumn Budget must have been disappointing. Did it make the company reevaluate its position in the market?
JM: It’ll affect us less than other brands. Which doesn’t mean it won’t affect us, but it definitely changes your marketing budget. We had to make a decision about five years ago whether to leave the market, as the regulations started to get quite tough when it came to things like source of wealth and anti-money laundering.
Matchbook deals with an enormous percentage of either professional gamblers or people who make part of or all of their living from gambling. They’ve had a tough time with the stricter regulations. We made the decision that we still wanted to be in the UK, even though it meant there was a huge amount of business we had to move away from or rebuild because it didn’t conform to regulations.
We take our compliance very seriously because you have to. I’m not sure where it could go from here. I know the taxes could go even higher, but it’s more about people who are finding difficulty betting when they actually want to bet, and then they go to black market. That’s not good for anybody.
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Jesse May speaks to EGR about the company’s prediction markets plans, navigating a “difficult” UK landscape, and why preserving market integrity is paramount
The post Matchbook’s head of strategy on how 20 years of experience will shake up the US prediction markets space first appeared on EGR Intel.