Prediction market volume could reach $1.5trn (£1.1trn) by 2030, up from $22bn this year, according to new analysis from Macquarie.
In a report, released on 23 July and authored by managing director and head of US research Chad Benyon, the investment bank forecasted volumes on prediction markets would rocket in the next five years, with sports events contracts making up $705bn and the remaining $783bn driven by markets such as politics.
The report highlighted that Kalshi is expected to increase its volume from $10.5bn to $520bn, citing major events such as the 2026 World Cup as the key drivers behind that growth. The US market leader reported $14bn in volume for the tournament.
Looking at non-sports markets, the report noted that those event contracts are “growing faster” and are expected to drive the majority of volume by 2030.
Benyon also assessed the competitive landscape of prediction markets, with the vertical expanding “rapidly” as more sportsbooks launch their own offerings.
Recent months have seen operators including Flutter, Fanatics and DraftKings add event contracts to their respective platforms.
Mentioning others including Underdog and PrizePicks, as well as rivals to Kalshi such as Polymarket, Coinbase and Robinhood, Macquarie added that more platforms competing in the space could drive revenue to approximately $50bn “assuming a net take rate of 3.25% on taker volume”.
“Currently, Kalshi (50%+ market share) continues to drive liquidity, distribution and network effects, as seen in the recent World Cup,” the report said. “That said, we expect fragmentation to look more like online sports betting.”
Exploring the ongoing regulatory risks Kalshi faces, Macquarie pointed to the “unresolved regulatory status of sports-event contracts and the potential for changes in federal support”.
It also highlighted that a “significant portion of Kalshi’s recent growth appears concentrated” in states where OSB is not legal, specifically Texas and California.
“It remains unclear whether Kalshi’s current user demand reflects a differentiated product offering or simply an alternative for consumers lacking access to traditional sportsbooks,” the report said.
In July, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered the platform to keep operating in the state of Michigan despite a court filing a temporary restraining order against the firm and Kalshi obeying the decision.
The same day Macquarie released its report, two Nevada congressmen unveiled a bipartisan bill that would block prediction market platforms from offering sports and casino‑style event contracts.
The post Macquarie: Prediction market volume expected to reach $1.5trn by 2030 first appeared on EGR Intel.
New report from gaming analysts at the investment bank says event contracts are growing faster than expected and forecasts market leader Kalshi’s volume to $520bn in next five years
The post Macquarie: Prediction market volume expected to reach $1.5trn by 2030 first appeared on EGR Intel.