Analysts in Macau are predicting a favorable December, following a Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) of MOP$18.4 billion ($2.30 billion) recorded last month.
While November ended on a relatively high note after a sluggish beginning, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced a daily GGR of MOP$615 million (US$77 million). This level is considered on the lower side for 2024’s monthly GGR figures.
Vitaly Umansky, a Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners, notes that November traditionally experiences weaker GGR. However, expectations for December suggest a roughly 5.2% increase compared to the previous year and a 5.9% rise from the prior month, reaching an estimated MOP$19.5 billion (US$2.43 billion).
In contrast, Carlo Santarelli, a Stock Analyst at Deutsche Bank, anticipates less robust growth for December than Umansky, projecting a modest 3% year-over-year increase in GGR, totaling approximately MOP$19.1 billion (US$2.39 billion).
Santarelli commented, “Our December forecast predicts a slight daily sequential improvement of 0.4%. Historically, this compares to an average daily sequential improvement of 0.7% from November to December, during 2013 to 2019.”
Potential growth could encounter obstacles due to the anticipated visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping on December 20 for the inauguration of the incoming Macau Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai. Presidential visits often lead to reduced travel from mainland China.
The announcement of Hou Fai’s appointment on October 12 negatively impacted September’s GGR, which saw a 12.7% decline from August, disrupting the region’s gaming momentum.
As the leading government official in Macau, Chief Executive Hou Fai previously critiqued the gaming industry’s dominance in the region’s economy.
Although Hou Fai’s influence has somewhat impacted gaming revenues recently, he affirmed the industry’s pivotal role for Macau. At a press conference, he stated, “The gaming industry is Macau’s cornerstone. Its healthy development is crucial. The new government intends to rigorously enforce gaming regulations to ensure the sustainable and organized growth of the six operators.”
“The new administration will oversee and require the operators to adhere to non-gaming investment obligations of MOP$130 billion, in line with contractual terms, to foster economic diversification in Macau.”