The NFL’s opening weekend was huge for Kalshi, as the prediction market platform reported over $303 million in trading volume, including $196 million on Sunday. That made the platform’s first full slate of football contests rival the activity of Election Day.
While Kalshi continues to claim it’s not a betting platform, sports accounted for 95% of trading. Approximately $254 million (84%) was allocated to football, with the NFL accounting for 53% of that, or $135 million. The Ravens vs. Bills Sunday night showdown drew a staggering $35.6 million, more than twice what any other game attracted.
All told, this was Kalshi’s first full football weekend, and it shattered previous marks.
College Football: A Foreshadowing Indicator of Success
The NFL’s explosion built directly on the momentum of college football last week.
Saturday’s action generated $87 million in volume, with 72% attributed to college football. Sports again accounted for 95% of all trading volume. Three games alone accounted for almost half of the trading for the day: Clemson vs. LSU, Florida State vs. Auburn, and Ohio State vs. Texas.
That single-day surge was already a record for Kalshi’s football markets, and the platform’s busiest day since Election Day 2024. It gave the company and its users an early preview of the appetite that NFL Sunday would unleash.
The seamless transition from a record-breaking college slate to an even bigger professional one demonstrated that Kalshi may have found its most reliable engine for growth.
Tennis Gets Its Share of the Spotlight
While football dominated, tennis also delivered a strong showing, thanks in part to the US Open finals.
The men’s final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz generated $19.6 million in weekend trading, becoming the most-traded tennis match ever on Kalshi. It outpaced all college football games, and it was the weekend’s second-most traded sports event after the Ravens vs. Bills game.
The women’s final between Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova was also popular, producing $8.93 million for the weekend.
Tennis may not rival football in scale, but the US Open highlighted Kalshi’s ability to capture global sporting events beyond US favorites like the NFL and NBA.
Kalshi Pricing Fails to Match Sportsbooks
Despite surging trading volume, Kalshi still faces challenges in competing with traditional sportsbooks. Analysts at Citizens JMP Securities noted that Kalshi’s NFL pricing was consistently more expensive than that of major operators, such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
On Friday, moneyline odds were about 10% higher than DraftKings and 16% higher than FanDuel, while over/under markets odds were even higher: 25% and 23%, respectively.
By Sunday, pricing had narrowed but still lagged, with moneylines averaging 7% more expensive and totals about 10% higher compared to DraftKings and FanDuel.
The difference is primarily due to Kalshi’s transaction fees, which average around $1.63 per 100 moneyline contracts and $1.75 per over/under bet, applicable to retail traders. Institutional participants receive lower fees, allowing them to provide liquidity while regular users face a higher effective cost.
Citizens also noted that Kalshi’s current cash-out tools have limited appeal because they lack the parlay context, the feature where casual bettors most often lock in profits early.
Kalshi self-certified to offer parlay contracts at the beginning of the month and provided limited options for the NFL opening weekend. However, it will need deeper and more flexible markets to compete directly with traditional sportsbooks.
Kalshi’s Cashing in Before Potential Legal Setbacks
Kalshi’s record weekend comes as the platform faces mounting legal and regulatory battles.
In California, three Native American tribes have asked a federal court to issue a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, blocking sports prediction markets on Indian lands. They argue that Kalshi is violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and threatening tribal sovereignty.
At the same time, a Nevada court recently denied Kalshi’s motion to pause discovery in its ongoing legal dispute with state regulators, ensuring that fact-finding will proceed.
Elsewhere, a Maryland judge denied the company’s injunction requests, rejecting its claims that the federal oversight preempts state gambling laws.
Still, Kalshi and Maryland regulators reached a temporary agreement. That paused Maryland’s enforcement of its cease-and-desist order until the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit decides the case.
In both Maryland and Nevada, court decisions could extend deep into the NFL season. That gives Kalshi time to capitalize on surging interest and further establish itself as a top destination for sports contracts.
Competition is Coming
Kalshi’s competitive advantage lies in its federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That allows it to operate in all US states, even those without legal betting, until Congress or courts intervene.
For a while, Kalshi was the only federally regulated prediction platform in the US. That has fueled explosive growth since the addition of sports contracts. However, that lead may not last. That’s because multiple prediction market platforms have launched or are preparing to launch in the near future:
- Polymarket – Received CFTC clearance for US launch this month. Already the largest platform by global volume, Polymarket runs sports markets abroad. It has also started promoting NFL offerings in anticipation of its US debut.
- Underdog – Leveraging a partnership with Crypto.com, Underdog’s event contracts are now live in 16 states. That includes parlay-style offerings in Texas and California.
- Aristotle (PredictIt’s operator) – Granted a CFTC license last week. That paves the way for PredictIt’s return to the US market under full regulatory cover.
- FanDuel – Partnered with CME Group to launch event contracts. Initial focus will remain on economic markets, but FanDuel has the resources to pivot into sports.
- DraftKings – Registered with the National Futures Association and is reportedly exploring an acquisition of Railbird Exchange to accelerate entry.
- Fanatics and PrizePicks – Both are also registered with the NFA, indicating their intentions to develop prediction products.
The competition highlights the growing convergence among betting operators, fintech firms, and prediction market startups. Kalshi may be the current frontrunner, but rivals with deeper customer bases and sportsbook experience are lining up behind them.
The post Kalshi NFL Weekend Trading Tops $303M, With $196M on Sunday appeared first on CasinoBeats.
The NFL’s opening weekend was huge for Kalshi, as the prediction market platform reported over $303 million in trading volume, including $196 million on Sunday. That made the platform’s first full slate of football contests rival the activity of Election Day. While Kalshi continues to claim it’s not a betting platform, sports accounted for 95%
The post Kalshi NFL Weekend Trading Tops $303M, With $196M on Sunday appeared first on CasinoBeats.