In a Wednesday note, brokerage CLSA predicts Macau gross gaming revenue will grow 5% in 2026. The projection was based on a “stronger renminbi versus the [US] dollar and a currently positive industrial profit indicator in China”.
CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan anticipate total GGR of MOP258.43 billion (US$32.3 billion) for the coming year, “implying daily GGR of MOP709 million per day”. They further expect the gaming sector “to deliver low-teens GGR growth in the first half”.
Macau’s official budget projections are more modest. According to figures released on 21 November, the government expects GGR of MOP236 billion next year. The forecast reflects “caution amid global economic uncertainties”, officials stated.
At the end of the third quarter, CLSA projected total GGR for 2025 of MOP244.830 billion. It has since revised its estimate, “marginally [raising] that projection … by 0.4% as we insert the actual GGR print for October while keeping our forecast unchanged”.
Macau to end 2025 on a positive note
CLSA noted that revenue “momentum since June has continued into the fourth quarter of 2025”. Through October, GGR rose 8% year on year, to MOP205.43 billion.
In December 2024, Macau set a GGR target of MOP240 billion for 2025. Following a slow start to the year and ongoing economic turbulence, it reset the projected total to MOP228 billion.
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, says the city’s gaming sector will end 2025 on a high note, with GGR up 16% for the fourth quarter following strong Golden Week performance.
An estimated 1.14 million people visited Macau for the eight-day national holiday, slightly below the government’s target of 1.2 million but surpassing the 2019 total of 974,000 arrivals.
Analysis by investment group CLSA emphasises a positive outlook for Macau’s gaming industry in the coming year.