Gustaf Hoffstedt, secretary general of the Swedish Trade Association for Online Gambling (BOS)
Northern Lights
For years, the UK has been the uncontested benchmark for gambling regulation in Europe, being among the first countries to demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a high level of channelisation while also safeguarding strong consumer protections. It’s an accomplishment that many other markets have looked to with admiration and envy.
But the shine is fading. With a surprise hike of the gambling tax rate and growing uncertainty about future policy direction, Britain’s new regulatory priority seems to be how quickly it can undo the gains of the past two decades. Europe’s former trailblazer now risks becoming a cautionary tale. So, who steps in to lead next?
The Nordic countries are emerging as Europe’s new regulatory North Star. Denmark has long been a model of balanced, effective oversight. Finland is preparing to dismantle its gambling monopoly and introduce a non-discriminatory licensing system in 2027. And after a period of friction between regulator and industry, Sweden is showing signs of regulatory recalibration, with improved channelisation following targeted adjustments.
This region is poised for a new form of “institutional competition”, where countries learn from one another, adopt best practices and maintain high regulatory standards without full harmonisation. While these systems won’t be identical, the shared social values, governance cultures and market maturity make the Nordics uniquely positioned to refine and export a smarter, more sustainable regulatory model.
Licence to fail
One by one, Europe’s ancient gambling monopolies have been replaced by licensing systems designed to integrate responsible private operators into national markets. This transformation was initially successful as consumers responded positively, channelisation improved and legal markets grew. But too many governments have failed to protect the systems they created. Instead of nurturing these new regulatory models, some policymakers have treated licensed operators as easy targets and boogeymen, imposing disproportionate restrictions, enforcement actions, or advertising bans, while letting unlicensed actors operate largely unchecked. Predictably, the result has been a slow erosion of trust, effectiveness and legitimacy.
Now we’re seeing the consequences. In the Netherlands, the regulator acknowledges that more than half the market is served by unlicensed operators. Germany is facing similar challenges. Unless something changes, either country could become the first on the continent to witness the collapse of a modern licensing system.
And what comes next? A return to monopolies is unrealistic and legally fraught. But rebuilding trust in the system, especially among operators, is no small task. Regulators will need to prove that they’re willing to protectandsupport their licensees, not just vilify and punish them. Without that shift, any new licensing framework risks inheriting the same structural weaknesses as the last.
Brussels strikes back
In 2017, the European Commission effectively walked away from gambling policy, outsourcing enforcement of EU law to the member states. The results were predictable with inconsistent interpretations, uneven protections and little accountability when national regulations clashed with single market principles.
But the tide may be turning. In October 2025, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)ordered the Commission to resume investigation into whether a member state had provided illegal state aid in its gambling sector. That ruling could mark the beginning of the EU re-engaging with gambling oversight and a long-overdue revival of the institution’s role in defending legal consistency, transparency and fairness across all sectors, including ours.
If the Commission takes that signal seriously, it would mark a significant shift. After years of silence, the EU may finally return as an active guarantor of the rule of law in the gambling space. That would be welcome news for the industry, consumers and national regulators alike. Welcome back, Brussels. We’ve missed you.
Carl Fredrik Stenstrøm, secretary general of the Norwegian Online Gambling Association (NOB)
Politics: more fragmentation means more chances to be heard
In 2026, Norwegian politics will likely feel even more “case by case” than before. The government doesn’t have a stable majority to lean on, and the parliament is used to building different coalitions depending on the issue. That can be frustrating. But for the gambling industry, it also means opportunity. When power is more spread out, more voices matter and more doors are open. We’re also seeing a shift inside the big opposition party, Høyre, with leadership changes that signal a new phase and new priorities.
Put simply: the political map is moving. And when the map moves, lobby work and good arguments can move outcomes too. My prediction is that 2026 brings more “single-issue deals” on gambling: some majorities will want stronger consumer protection tools, while others will push for clearer limits and more proportional rules. If the industry shows credible data on harm prevention, transparency and what works online, it can find allies across party lines much easier than in the last parliamentary term.
Trust: Norsk Tipping’s biggest challenge is credibility
The class action against Norsk Tipping is not just a courtroom story. In 2026, it risks becoming a public trust story, and trust is the core of Norway’s current model. Most people don’t follow regulation debates closely, but they do understand fairness: “Were the games run correctly?” and “Did I get accurate information?”
My prediction is that this case will keep pressure on Norsk Tipping to be more open, faster to admit mistakes and clearer about how problems are fixed. It will also push regulators and politicians to demand stronger quality control and more independent checks, because “we’ll handle it internally” won’t be enough. Expect more talk about routines, audits and how quickly customers are informed when something is wrong. No matter the outcome of the case itself, the reputational cost will linger. That gives reform voices an easier message in 2026. The monopoly model only works if people genuinely believe it is transparent, competent and on the player’s side, and that belief must be earned again.
Merger between Norsk Tipping and Rikstoto: It will be evaluated, but it will not go ahead
My final prediction for 2026 is that the Rikstoto and Norsk Tipping merger process will end with a clear conclusion that a full merger is not the right move, at least for now. The political and practical costs are simply too high compared with the potential gains. The biggest stumbling block will be loss limits. A merger would force lawmakers to choose one loss limit regime, or to create carve-outs. A single strict standard could be seen as undermining the horse betting product, while exceptions would be criticised for weakening consumer protection and creating a two-tier system inside the same company.
That is a fight few politicians will want to own. I also expect worries about horseracing to be decisive. Stakeholders will argue that the sport needs predictable funding and dedicated attention, and that it risks becoming a small priority in a larger Norsk Tipping structure. The most likely end point is therefore no merger.
The post Industry predictions for 2026: EU ramps up involvement and pressure builds in Norway first appeared on EGR Intel.
BOS chief Gustaf Hoffstedt and NOB secretary general Carl Fredrik Stenstrøm look at how next year could play out in the Nordics
The post Industry predictions for 2026: EU ramps up involvement and pressure builds in Norway first appeared on EGR Intel.