Nigel Birrell, Lottoland CEO
The UK market will be forced to adapt and evolve
The UK market will be challenging not just for the operators but also for customers and suppliers – the tax increase will have to be shared with suppliers and customers who will see fewer rewards and bonuses.
We also expect to see some downsizing, consolidation or even exits from the UK market, particularly for smaller or more UK-focused brands and we will see larger brands sweeping up the smaller ones that are unable to survive the challenges that the Budget has brought. Those that are able to weather the storm could come out stronger and more focused as a business, but will need to rely on more than the UK market.
Finally, there is the obvious increased risk of black-market activity. When regulated operators are required to reduce RTP, scale back bonuses and carry significantly higher compliance obligations, while unlicensed platforms face none of that friction, the competitive pull of the black market naturally grows.
The black market offers a product without customer protections, without regulatory oversight and without the operational constraints that responsible operators rightly carry. That imbalance becomes more pronounced as the regulated sector absorbs the duty increase.
Adjusting tax rates can strengthen Brazil’s black market
As we head towards the beginning of 2026, the Brazilian regulated betting market is entering a phase of important adjustments.
Congress is considering new tax measures, including a 15% deposit tax, higher GGR rates of up to 18%, and a retroactive back-tax regime – measures that reshape the economic framework for operators and may influence investment decisions.
In parallel, the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting reported 17.7 million bettors and the blocking of over 15,000 illegal websites in the first half of the 2025, underscoring both the sector’s scale and the need for ongoing oversight, alongside three new November ordinances that introduce tighter deadlines and require operational agility.
In terms of market drivers, we believe the FIFA World Cup – a culturally unifying event in Brazil – will extend national and regional sports calendars, generating sustained engagement throughout the year.
At the same time, tax adjustments must avoid unintentionally strengthening the black market, still estimated at around half of all activity. Balancing government revenue objectives, market attractiveness and sustainability, and effective enforcement will be essential to enabling the right regulated ecosystem and ensuring a safer experience for consumers.
Operators will incorporate more AI
In 2026, AI will move beyond isolated tools and pilots and start reshaping how the industry operates at a systemic level. The focus will shift from what AI can generate, to what it can actually run, optimise and control across day-to-day operations.
Automation will become more context-aware and outcome-driven. Rather than single actions or static rules, AI will increasingly orchestrate full workflows across customer service, compliance, fraud prevention and internal operations.
These agentic workflows will be able to adapt in real time, understand when to act autonomously and when to involve a human, improving both efficiency and consistency at scale.
This evolution will have a direct impact on responsible gambling. More intelligent, behaviour-driven systems will enable earlier risk detection and more meaningful interventions, embedded naturally within player journeys instead of sitting as separate safety layers.
The key challenge in 2026 will not be technological capability, but control. Governance, QA and human oversight will become central as agentic systems gain more autonomy. The operators that succeed will be those that embed AI responsibly into their core workflows, treating it as a long-term capability rather than a short-term advantage.
Alex Green, ZEAL vice-president of games
Regulation as driver for innovation
In 2026, we will finally move past the idea that regulation and innovation are opposing forces.
Many mature markets across Europe are proving the opposite: that clear, well-defined regulation can create the conditions for better products, stronger brands and more sustainable, responsible growth.
When the rules are clear, innovation doesn’t have to disappear – but it might have to change direction. Fixed RTPs, stake limits and game speed restrictions push developers to focus on what truly differentiates great games: user experience, storytelling, immersion and emotional engagement.
Especially in slots, the most exciting progress is no longer about maximising monetisation mechanics, but about creating games people genuinely enjoy while playing within responsible boundaries.
At the same time, trust is becoming a valuable currency in our industry. Players increasingly choose brands that feel transparent, reliable and aligned with their values. Regulation can provide the framework to help build that trust at scale.
AI-driven personalisation within clear boundaries
In 2026, AI-powered personalisation will become broadly accepted in the gambling industry – but only if it is used transparently and within clearly defined limits. Personalisation has long been standard in many digital industries, and players increasingly expect experiences that adapt to their preferences.
The next phase of AI in igaming will not be about increasing spending or pushing riskier behaviour. Instead, it will focus on improving the quality of the experience as well as helping to protect and support players. In slots, this means adapting elements such as game recommendations to different player preferences – without touching core parameters such as RTP or game fairness.
It also means using AI to monitor player behaviour and intervene if required. At ZEAL, we have implemented the GameScanner from Mindway AI since 2022 to detect problematic player behaviour at a very early stage.
Regulators will play a key role in shaping this development by drawing clear lines between acceptable personalisation and exploitative practices. If done right, AI can help create more enjoyable, more accessible and more responsible games.
Distinct game identities over generic slot aesthetics
By 2026, differentiation in slots will no longer come from themes alone. The market is already saturated with familiar motifs, making it increasingly difficult for new games to stand out.
What will matter instead is a clear and recognisable game identity – defined by style, tone and character, not by surface-level aesthetics.
We already see this in our own portfolio. Titles that perform particularly well are those with a strong sense of identity: real main characters and a consistent narrative world. Games like The Bookmaker or Minga Maß resonate because they feel distinctive and memorable.
Going forward, successful slot development will rely on strong art direction, recurring design DNA and cohesive worlds that players can immediately recognise. Rather than constantly jumping between unrelated themes, operators and studios will focus on building branded game universes with a clear creative signature.
In 2026, players won’t recognise great slots by their theme alone, but by their style.
Distinctive identities will become a key driver of long-term engagement, brand loyalty and sustainable success in regulated markets.
The post Industry predictions for 2026: AI shaping slots and tax turmoil for Brazil and the UK first appeared on EGR Intel.
Lottoland CEO Nigel Birrell and ZEAL vice-president of games Alex Green explore potential industry developments over the next 12 months
The post Industry predictions for 2026: AI shaping slots and tax turmoil for Brazil and the UK first appeared on EGR Intel.