IG Group’s share slumped 25% on Friday, 2 October, after a trading update from Underdog’s soon-to-be parent was not well received by investors.
The brief update noted that in the three months ending 30 September 2026, revenue was down around 14% to approximately £240m.
Management confirmed revenue retention in Q3 was around 70%, which is below the 80% “averaged since the introduction of market-making optimisation measures”.
“While Q3 2026 OTC net trading revenue of approximately £155m was around 18% lower year on year, OTC customer income increased by approximately 8%,” bosses added.
Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now only expected to be in the mid-single-digit range.
Despite those points, IG Group reported that Underdog’s net revenue in Q3 was up more than 100% year on year to around $105m.
That improvement comes ahead of Q4, which includes the main portion of the 2026 NFL season.
IG Group said the final three months of last year accounted for more than a third of Underdog’s revenue in 2025.
IG Group announced it was to acquire Underdog in July in a deal worth up to $1.3bn, including an upfront consideration of $1.1bn.
At the time of the deal being announced, IG Group said Underdog was “well placed” to succeed in the prediction markets space.
Underdog snapped up Aristotle Exchange to build out an in-house stack to power it prediction markets ambitions last year.
The operator, which began life in DFS before a brief sojourn into online sports betting, was valued at $1.2bn after a Series C funding round in March 2025.
Speaking during a Bank of America conference last month, Underdog CEO Jeremy Levine heaped praise on IG Group CEO Breon Corcoran and the deal.
Corcoran was heading up Paddy Power Betfair when it bought Levine’s previous startup DRAFT in 2017.
Levine said: “I have a lot of admiration for [Corcoran] and he’s obviously one of the most accomplished, if not the most accomplished CEOs in our space.
“And then for [IG Group], they’ve clearly made it a priority to increase their US footprint, increase growth. And I’ll let them speak more on why they did the deal, but for us it’s very much a relationship with him, the shared DNA.
“And I think we can see together what that business can become. A lot of belief in the value and the upside.”
IG Group is set to hold an investor day specifically on Underdog on 8 October.
On the results, Corcoran said: “Growth in first trades and active customers remained strong in Q3 2026.
“Lower Q3 revenue reflected reduced OTC revenue retention in less supportive market conditions, and I remain confident in meeting our medium-term guidance.”
The post IG Group shares slump but Underdog performance shines in Q3 first appeared on EGR Intel.
London-listed firm reveals soon-to-be-acquired prediction market’s revenue rose more than 100%, with further strategy details to be revealed in an investor seminar this month
The post IG Group shares slump but Underdog performance shines in Q3 first appeared on EGR Intel.