In a Monday note to investors, JP Morgan Securities Asia Pacific raised its Macau gaming forecast for the third time in three months.
The bank now projects a 13% rise in gross gaming revenue for the second half of 2025, versus just 4% in the first half. It attributed its optimism to “high-end” Chinese business owners, who make up most of the city’s premium mass and VIP cohort.
Those consumers, who are less affected by economic uncertainties on the mainland, helped propel gaming revenues from May through July.
Turnaround started in May
After a flat first quarter, Macau casinos posted GGR of MOP18.86 billion (US$2.36 billion) in April, up just 1.7% year-on-year. It was the year’s worst monthly performance since January.
Improvement began in May, with GGR of MOP$21.19 billion, up 5% year-on-year and 12.4% over April. In June, the figure surged 19% to MOP$21.06 billion. July came in at MOP$22.13 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year and 19% month-on-month, for the best month of the year so far.
As JP Morgan analysts DS Kim and Selina Li wrote: “Macau demand, even base-mass, comes from the high-end Chinese, not necessarily broad consumers.” Positive sentiment across the board “was likely lifted by wealth effects from stock rallies in China/Hong Kong/the United States, crypto surge, etc.
“We have seen similar green-shoots emerging recently across HK retail, Swiss watch exports and mainland luxury malls,” the analysts wrote.
Strong yuan, special events factor in
The JP Morgan team also credited new junkets – five more gaming promoters launched in May – and a stronger yuan. Since April, the renminbi has appreciated by about 1.4% against the US dollar. “That has helped Chinese spending power in Macau,” they wrote.
Then there is entertainment. “High-profile concerts/events provide gamblers a compelling excuse for more frequent trips,” per Kim and Li. The lineup has “[boosted] Macau’s allure, capturing greater wallet/time share from gamblers and families”.
The bank forecasts 12% EBITDA growth in the third quarter and 16% in the fourth quarter, “outpacing Street expectations”.
‘Demand waiting to be unlocked’
According to the JP Morgan team, most investors are asking: “Why is Macau thriving despite weak China macro/consumption?” The latest China Brief from McKinsey & Co describes a “complex and often contradictory picture”.
“Consumer confidence remains low, the property market is under sustained stress and households continue to save at historically high levels,” the brief states. “The preference among consumers for stashing their money in savings suggests ongoing uncertainty – but also hints at potential demand waiting to be unlocked.
“Recent data paints a picture of a Chinese consumer that is willing to spend again. The Chinese consumer has ‘moved on’.”
In the first half of 2025, retail sales edged up and air travel surpassed 2019 levels. Fewer entry restrictions and China’s expanded visa-free transit policy also helped. As of July, the policy allowed travellers from 75 countries to visit for up to 30 days without a visa.
As a result, according to the Macau Statistics and Census Service, in the first half, visitor arrivals increased 14.9% year-on-year to 19.2 million. That puts the city on track to reach its goal of up to 39 million tourists in 2025, nearing the record 39.4 million posted in 2019.
Analysts say increased consumer confidence among wealthy Chinese is driving better returns at Macau casinos.