Genius Sports has set full-year 2028 targets of $1.2bn (£899.3m) in revenue and $365m in adjusted EBITDA, as management laid out the benefits of prediction market expansion in the US.
Delivered at an Investor Day held yesterday, 3 December, the supplier also forecast free cash flow to hit $220m in three years’ time.
In comparison, full-year 2025 revenue is expected to land at $655m, with guidance having been raised after the firm reported Q3 revenue of $166.3m.
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is predicted to reach $136m.
Bosses said the growth will be delivered via ramping up the GeniusIQ platform, its betting growth outpacing the wider market and a “high margin” media business.
During the three-hour presentation, Genius Sports chief commercial officer Jack Davison explained how prediction markets would also help achieve the supplier’s targets.
Management have noted in recent months that the sector offers an opportunity for expansion.
In September, CEO Mark Locke described the vertical as a “materially attractive” growth opportunity.
Davison listed four potential paths for predictions markets the supplier would benefit from.
Those were ongoing uncertainty allowing operators to continue to remain live, fragmentation with some states blocking the platforms and federal clarity.
The final path would be legislators accelerating the legalisation of sports betting due to the presence of prediction markets.
He said: “The key for Genius is that the rise of prediction markets expands out total addressable market. No matter what the future holds with the industry, we are positioned to win in every scenario.
“From our European perspective, none of this is new. We’ve seen this model before. This revenue for Genius is real, it’s recurring and it is growing.
“Prediction markets aren’t replacing sportsbooks. They’re not even competing with them. They’re a different product for a different customer. And for Genius, that’s good news.
“We will continue to see headlines around prediction markets. But whether it leads to more uncertainty, to fragmentation, to clarity or even acceleration, the outcome is the same. Every path creates a larger TAM for Genius than we have today.”
On the 2028 targets, Locke added: “Our 2028 targets sit on top of already-demonstrated growth and margin progress, not blue-sky ambition.
“With multiple monetisation engines built on one GeniusIQ platform infrastructure, Genius is a pure play investment in the growth of modern, digital sport consumption.”
The post Genius Sports targets FY 28 revenue of $1.2bn alongside prediction markets push first appeared on EGR Intel.
Supplier expects sector to increase its TAM, as bosses lay out three-year plan which includes betting arm growing faster than average market pace
The post Genius Sports targets FY 28 revenue of $1.2bn alongside prediction markets push first appeared on EGR Intel.