With 2024 concluding with a 19% jump in revenue for Flutter, along with soaring active monthly players and the snaring of market share across the globe, the industry behemoth’s latest earnings report painted a company in rude health.
FanDuel now has a blended market share of 36% based on GGR, with that figure 46% for sports betting alone. Revenue in the US was up 14% to $1.6bn (£1.2bn) in Q4, while structural margin hit 14.5%.
Outside of the US, market leading position and “compelling product” resulted in strong gains, albeit on a constant currency basis.
And, with the acquisitions of Snaitech and a 56% stake in NSX Group due to complete this year, Flutter’s global grip looks to be tightening. Full-year group 2025 revenue guidance has been set at the top end of $16.38bn, a jump up from 2024’s $14bn.
The majority of the growth will come from the US, where igaming is also improving, and a push of Your Way, the same game parlay and free-to-play content that’s continuing to attract consumers.
Here, EGR explores some key points from the operator’s earnings call.
The Italian Job
Following reports from The Irish Times earlier this year that Flutter could lodge a bid for Italy’s National Lottery licence, CEO Peter Jackson was asked by analysts for his thoughts on taking the contract. The lottery is currently managed by IGT, with the supplier’s licence due to end in November 2025.
The Italian Agency for Customs and Monopolies has launched a bidding process for the next nine-year licence, with a reported €1bn (£837.9m) minimum bid attached. Flutter already runs the SuperEnalotto via its Sisal brand in the market.
Jackson praised the Italian team’s efforts in cross-selling from lottery to Sisal’s betting and gaming products, with Q4 2024 revenue for the region up 28% on a constant currency basis compared to Q4 2023.
Jackson said: “In Italy, there is an opportunity to bid for the Lotto contract. It’s a very different type of product to the SuperEnalotto we already run.
“We’ve been very pleased by the way in which we’ve been able to run the product. I think Sisal has done a brilliant job in terms of driving cross-sell into the online channel and driving the benefits of that.
“We are putting our thoughts together [on a bid]. We’ve got a couple of weeks to decide what we’re going to do. The extent to which we can make a good financial return on it, you’d expect us to lean into it.”
CFO Rob Coldrake added: “If you look at the Lotto, 21 million Italians are playing it every week, which is over 40% of the population. We think there’s a huge opportunity there. If the numbers make sense, it’s something we’re looking [at].”
Brazil burn
The regulated sports betting and igaming Brazilian market went live on 1 January, with Flutter aiming for a podium position after snapping up 56% of Betnacional parent NSX Group for $350m. The deal was announced in September and is due to complete in Q2 2025. Flutter was operational in the grey market with Betfair and PokerStars, but the hope is a local hero will really power the company to the upper echelons of market share.
Revenue in Brazil for Q4 was up 19% on a constant currency basis, but down 17% when accounting for FX impact. Bosses have said 2025 could carry a $100m EBITDA hit from the market as Flutter jostles for position in the newly regulated arena.
Jackson said: “We’re excited to be working with NSX and we hope to get the deal closed in the next quarter. I think we’ve got a terrific team and the opportunity to be able to bring the ‘Flutter Edge’ to bear there will be very exciting. There’ll be up to $100m of EBITDA losses this year.
“Brazil is not like the launch of a US state. There [was] a very extensive market in operation before regulation arrived. It was a very functioning market. It’s not going to be like the launch of Missouri will be in Q4.”
Coldrake, who formerly headed up the finance function in Flutter’s international division before moving to his group position, said the operator’s previous experience put it in good stead.
The CFO continued: “There is going to be, in the first 12 to 18 months, intense competition. There were up to 200 different companies that applied for a licence. But I think given our track record, given our capabilities, given our products, we are confident in our ability to succeed in the Brazilian market.”
You can have it Your Way
With same game parlays (or bet builders for EGR’s UK readers) continuing to account for a growing percentage of FanDuel’s handle, Jackson took the opportunity to espouse on the benefit of the brand’s Your Way tool, which is delivering even greater customisation for multi-leg bets.
The product has had a soft rollout in recent months for the NFL, with the plan to push the tool into NBA markets in coming weeks. When asked how Your Way fared during the Super Bowl, Jackson painted a picture of a product ready to ramp up into a main star for FanDuel.
He noted: “We didn’t particularly market it aggressively [around the Super Bowl]. We saw around one in 20 customers use the product. I think around 90% of bets that people placed were bets they couldn’t have done without using the customisation that’s available within Your Way.
“Around 25% of customers placed parlay bets of more than 10 legs, so we’re seeing really strong engagement with it. People are really enjoying the extent to which they can customise and find bets.”
The CEO also stressed the need to ensure Your Way is delivered in an accessible way to users, and that Flutter is able to protect itself against significant risk. Recall, the business issued a profit warning in January over adverse NFL results, including losing more than $70m on one game.
With structural hold at 14.5% and a long-term target of 17%, those risk adverse parts of launch will be key.
Jackson added: “We’ve got to get the merchandising right from a customer perspective. And so the user experience of having a vastly increased array of product could become overwhelming and we have to make sure it isn’t. I think the team are doing a really nice job.
“But it’s no good taking bets on an array of new products if you actually haven’t got the risk management right at the same time.”
School is in session
With a host of US states also proposing tax hikes on online sports betting and igaming operators in the 2025 legislative session and future state budgets, Jackson also touched on Flutter’s efforts to educate lawmakers on the negative impacts of pushing ahead with such polices.
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has put forward a tax rise of 25% for both verticals in the 2026 budget, while Maryland’s budget for the same year proposes a rise in the sports betting levy from 15% to 30%.
Ohio could also double its tax rate from 20% to 40% as part of Governor Mike DeWine’s 2026-27 budget. While Illinois scrapped its 15% flat rate for a 20%-40% sliding scale based on GGR, with FanDuel being caught at the top end.
Jackson said: “We are also monitoring proposals for state gaming tax increases within the regulated sports betting market, and we’re working closely with advisers and regulators, alongside our peers, to ensure the impact such changes can have on the regulated market are well understood.”
On the impact in Illinois, Coldrake added: “As we previously mentioned with Illinois, we said there was going to be a circa $50m impact in 2024 and that would be $40m after mitigation. It’s broadly ended up in line with that. We’ve previously said for 2025, we’re expecting to be able to mitigate circa 50% gross impact, and that’s still where we’re thinking.”
Plain Jane
As has been par for the course this earnings season, US-facing operators have been asked to opine on the sports event contracts sector after Kalshi and Crypto.com launched operations in all 50 US states.
With the effective deployment of sports betting across the US, President Trump’s son, Don Jr, joining the Kalshi board and a Kalshi board member being put forward as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), questions have been raised over what, if any, threat the sector poses.
The CFTC had asked Kalshi and Crypto.com to pause offerings; both declined to do so. Robinhood had tapped Kalshi to launch its own Super Bowl product and swiftly reversed its decision following CFTC intervention.
A roundtable on the sector is due to be held in the coming months, with Jackson taking the opportunity to suggest the product doesn’t compare to existing sports betting and igaming propositions in the US.
He explained: “We are monitoring the situation with these sports future contracts closely.
“The regulation is very fluid. We understand that the CFTC is due to hold a roundtable on sports-related event contracts for the next month or so.
“It could be an interesting opportunity but I think it’s worth recognising that the products themselves lack the richness of a true sportsbook offering. We need to remember that the prediction products are very vanilla in comparison.”
The post Five things we learned from Flutter’s Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings first appeared on EGR Intel.
EGR picks out some key talking points from the New York-listed giant’s latest financial report, including Your Way progress, event contracts and challenges in Brazil
The post Five things we learned from Flutter’s Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings first appeared on EGR Intel.