Flutter Entertainment’s Q3 earnings call didn’t really mention earnings much at all. Analysts instead focused more on FanDuel Predicts, its prediction market JV with CME Group, would go live next month and offer sports event contracts in non-sports betting states in tandem with the quarterly report.
And while there was growth in the business, driven by the acquisitions of Snaitech and Betnacional, as well as strong igaming performances, FanDuel Predicts was well and truly the main event.
It means rivals FanDuel and DraftKings will both go live with sports event contracts in the coming weeks, marking the advent of another significant shift in the US sports betting landscape. EGR looks at the decision as well as other insights from the operator’s latest earnings call.
Predictions, predictions, predictions
Prediction markets could well have accounted for all five entries in this breakdown. FanDuel Predicts and prediction markets were mentioned 48 times in the hour-long call, as Flutter announced sports event contracts would go live in non-sports betting states this December.
Around $45m (£34.2m) in investment for FanDuel Predicts has been pegged for Q4, with between $200m and $300m in spend for 2026, backload to H2 ahead of the NFL starting in September. CEO Peter Jackson said he expects FanDuel Predicts to be the “market-leading product by the time we get to Q2 next year”.
Jackson added that a “bunch of the team who have been working on the Betfair Exchange” were deployed to develop the product. Parlays will not launch initially but are expected to be added to the product next year, as are player prop markets.
Jackson also said he hoped the launch in non-sports betting states such as California and Texas could catalyse sports betting legislation. He noted: “The FanDuel Predics product is something very exciting for the half of America who can’t currently access sports betting. But if you’re sat in a state and you’re getting close to passing legislation, you won’t want to miss out on the tax dollars.
“We hope this does accelerate some of the legalisation of states that were previously in the pipeline, as ultimately, we’d like to see as many states as possible because I think that means consumers will get a much better offer.”
FanDuel also relinquished its licence in Nevada to pursue the opportunity. The Nevada Gaming Control Board said it had “accepted the surrender” of the licence as Flutter intends to “engage in unlawful activities related to sports event contracts”.
On Nevada, Jackson remarked: “While we are sad to have to surrender the licence, but that’s what we’ve done. Nevada was protecting their interests. We need to protect our interests. And FanDuel Predicts will allow us to go after the half of the market that we haven’t previously been able to go after.”
Indian winter
India’s decision to ban real-money gaming (RMG) earlier this year was a blow to Flutter, which runs the Junglee Games brand in the market. The business has shifted to a free-to-play model following the ruling, with Jackson stating the group will “assess our medium-term options in the market”.
A $556m non-cash impairment charge has been placed against the asset, while bosses are expecting a $70m revenue hit and $30m EBITDA drag in 2025 as a result. In 2026, revenue could be hit by $250m, before a $310m impact in 2027.
Jackson said: “We were frustrated at the speed with which the bill that emerged came into law. We might get some sort of legal clarity around the extent to which some of these games of skill may be able to come back. They have had 70 years’ worth of constitutional protection in India.
“It’s not that long ago that we saw Black Friday in America and look where we are today. We’re going to maintain Junglee products on a free-to-play basis, and we’ll see what happens. We’re doing all the lobbying and legal challenges that you’d expect us to.”
Life in the old dog
While still the market leader in the UK and Ireland (UKI) with Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair and tombola, Flutter only reported a 1% year-on-year (YoY) increase in revenue in Q3 to $853m. A 7% decline in sports betting revenue was offset by a 7% jump in igaming. Bosses said unfavourable results had had an impact, although new content for online casino was a positive.
In comparison, albeit from a smaller base, Entain’s Q3 UKI revenue was up 8% in constant currency.
CFO Rob Coldrake said: “We’re pleased with the momentum that we’ve got in the UK. There’s quite a lot of results in the mix because we had a very favourable Euros in Q3 last year, which is impacting the comps on the sportsbook revenue.
“We’ve completed the migration of our Sky Bet platform onto our UKI platform. When we did a similar transition with Paddy Power a few years ago, it really benefited the business, and it acted as a real catalyst for growth. We’re hoping and anticipating the same will happen with Sky Bet.
“We’re the market leader in the UK. We’ve got an exceptionally strong business and we’re very confident about what 2026 will bring.”
Jackson touched on potential tax hikes in the UK ahead of this month’s Autumn Budget. “Should taxes increase, Flutter’s unmatched scale and market-leading position will help to mitigate the impact”, he said.
Don’t need Disney
Asked about ESPN’s new partnership with DraftKings and if it could have any impact on the US sports betting market, Jackson said Flutter was comfortable with its existing media deals in place. FanDuel has penned an exclusive partnership with Amazon for NBA coverage, which has seen odds integrations on broadcasts.
DraftKings and ESPN joined forces after Disney and PENN Entertainment pulled the plug on ESPN Bet, with PENN set to launch theScore Bet in the US instead, replicating its model in Canada. Jackson went on to insist that product, over media tie-ins, is what truly matters.
The CEO noted: “I don’t think there are many partnerships that emerge in the US market that we haven’t looked at. And as a scale player, if we want to do these deals, we’ve got the resources to make them happen.
“We’ve been very pleased with our Amazon partnership. The odds integration and things you can do from a consumer perspective and also see on screen, I think work really well.
“But ESPN struggled to get their bet product to work. We’ve seen a number of these media deals struggle because of the quality of the product. We have the best product in the market, and we think that’s what stands us in best regard in terms of continuing to grow and be number one in America.”
Money bags
“A range of unsustainable, uneconomic customer offers” was how Jackson described the promotional intensity from US sports betting competitors at the start of the NFL season in the report. He said FanDuel, on the other hand, took a “disciplined investment approach” which is now paying off in Q4.
Handle in the US was up 6% YoY, although revenue slid 5% to $783m. Adjusted EBITDA in the US segment, including igaming, was down 12% to $51m.
However, FanDuel exited Q3 with a sports betting market share of 38% based on GGR and 41% based on NGR. In September alone, online NGR share was 47% alone.
Coldrake added: “We did see a lot of competitive action at the start of the NFL season with some very uneconomic offers in the market.
“We maintained our discipline, our investment posture, as we tend to do. There was some handle and same game parlay share that we lost in the first couple weeks of September, but we were pleased with the way we managed through September and, subsequently, our performance into October.
“We have seen a moderation of that competitive intensity, but it still remains a little elevated, I would say, from normal levels. These handle-driving measures don’t always convert to revenue. I think that has transpired to be the case for some of our competitors.”
The post Five things we learned from Flutter’s Q3 earnings first appeared on EGR Intel.
News editor Joe Levy sifts through the giant’s latest report, including updates on sports event contracts and dealing with the fallout from India’s RMG ban
The post Five things we learned from Flutter’s Q3 earnings first appeared on EGR Intel.