For more than two decades, Finland has defended the idea that a single state-owned operator could simultaneously maximise revenue, minimise harm and eradicate the black market.
By 2022 that logic had collapsed under its own contradictions. Channelisation had sunk below 50%, Veikkaus’ annual contribution to the state had halved since 2017, and policymakers across the political spectrum were conceding—quietly at first, then publicly—that the monopoly was no longer defensible.
Now the country is poised to become Europe’s newest licensed market. What remains uncertain is when the competitive regime will actually begin. The legislative process—still officially aligned with the government’s timetable—has begun to buckle under political nervousness about advertising, electoral timing and the preparedness of regulators.
But while Parliament wrangles over dates, operators are already building teams, commissioning legal advice and shaping local strategies. The Finnish opening is small by European standards but symbolically weighty: one of the last Nordic holdouts is moving into the mainstream. And the industry is preparing accordingly.
Where the bill stands—and why delay now looks likely
At a technical level, the bill is close to the finish line. “The Finnish Parliament’s Administration Committee decided to conclude its hearings on 13 November and is now drafting its report,” says Antti Koivula, Chief Compliance Officer of Hippos ATG. He expects the report “at the very latest mid-December,” after which the two plenary readings “can be completed relatively quickly.”
Independent consultant Jari Vähänen offers a similar assessment: “Parliament is still considering the bill. The Administrative Committee is almost ready, and Parliament will have time to approve it this year, when the law will enter into force on 1 January 2026.”
And yet the committee’s schedule tells another story. Pekka Ilmivalta of Nordic Legal had noted an omission in dealing with the bill in the administrative committee’s weekly plan, which, he said, “raises concerns about the timetable”.
Behind this ambiguity lies political considerations. Both Ilmivalta and Vähänen point to last-minute discussions about pushing the market opening from January 2027 to summer 2027—after Finland’s parliamentary elections.
Gambling operators aware of potential delay
Operators received the same signals. A representative from a big operator told iGB that “government are now discussing postponing the market opening…so after the elections in April,” explaining why the item was unexpectedly pulled from the committee’s agenda.
What is driving the hesitation? According to Vähänen, “political decision-makers fear that gambling marketing will increase so much that public opinion will turn against it before the parliamentary elections.” Even parties broadly supportive of liberalisation prefer to postpone any visible shift until after the vote.
Most observers therefore expect a short delay—weeks in legislative approval, months in market opening. As University of Helsinki researcher Janne Nikkinen puts it, “Perhaps a delay of a few days or weeks, they’re mostly ironing out technical issues.” The law’s substance is not in question; the timeline is.
A spokesperson from the Ministry of Interior could not comment on a possible delay, but said in an email to iGB: “The aim of the Administrative committee has been to complete the report in November, according to the estimate, after which the report is meant to progress to the plenary session”.
Consensus without clarity
Despite procedural delays, political unity on the need for reform is unusually strong. “There has been broad cross-party consensus for a few years that the gambling market should be partially liberalised,” Koivula says. Differences remain over advertising and harm-prevention, but not over the direction of travel.
Ilmivalta explains the logic: “Channelisation of the monopoly is less than 50%, income for the Finnish government has declined and at the same time problem gambling has been slightly increasing. The current system simply does not serve its purpose any more.”
And unlike in many European debates, the opposition has little incentive to resist change: Veikkaus itself declared as early as 2022 that the monopoly should be dismantled. As Nikkinen puts it, “Even the opposition isn’t opposing the reform, because Veikkaus itself said it no longer wants the monopoly.”
The political friction, therefore, is not about whether but when.
A regulator still not ready for day one
While legislative consensus holds, confidence in regulatory readiness is far thinner.
Koivula is frank: “I am not fully confident that the transition will be seamless. ” Although the National Police Board will supervise licensing through 2026, he warns that “the new authority will need to hire a substantial number of employees, and very few—if any—will have prior experience in the gambling sector.” Even within the National Police Board, he says, “this remains to be seen.”
Nikkinen is more pessimistic: Finland’s model “relies on courts, which can take years. That’s too slow for fast-moving marketing campaigns.” The new authority will sit within a regional administrative agency that also handles unrelated topics, from animal welfare to alcohol licensing. “They won’t have power to sanction directly. That’s a weakness,” he says.
Vähänen is more hopeful, believing staff will transfer from the NPB and that the technology project “will be ready in 2026.” Ilmivalta, though trusting in Finnish administrative competence in general, stresses that preparations “have not been very transparent, nor has the regulator had much dialogue with the industry.”
The result seems to be a split-screen picture: operators preparing with determination, and regulators racing quietly behind.
A black-market problem without the tools to solve it
Every expert interviewed agreed that the largest structural weakness is enforcement.
Koivula’s assessment is blunt: “I foresee nothing but enforcement challenges. The enforcement toolbox provided to the regulator is highly insufficient for tackling black market operators.” He warns of a counter-intuitive outcome in which “the majority of enforcement actions end up targeting licensed operators,” simply because they are visible and cooperative.
Nikkinen underscores the legislative omissions: Finland “does not include payment blocking, website blocking, DNS blocking,” partly due to political resistance and partly because the autonomous region of Åland—and PAF—complicates national blocking measures. The result, he predicts, is persistent leakage: “I believe leakage to the black market will continue, and that we’ll need to revise the law again by 2029 or 2030.”
Ilmivalta shares the concern: “There will always be those who decide not to join the regulated market, and the regulator’s tools are not too many.” The B2B licensing requirement in 2028 will help, but is unlikely to be decisive.
Even the operators’ own trade body, the Finnish Gambling Association, Rahapeliala, strikes a cautionary tone. CEO Mika Kuismanen argues that “the bill in itself does not contain enough explicit tools to combat the black market,” warning that if supervision focuses only on licensed companies,” unlicensed operators will not have sufficient incentive to consider the legal market.
Operators prepare: cautious, optimistic and waiting for certainty
Despite the regulatory grey zones, operator sentiment is broadly positive. “The industry as a whole has a positive feeling,” says Kuismanen. The legislative process has been relatively fast and well structured, even if “operators will still have to wait before starting full preparations.”, he says.
FDJ/Kindred´s general manager for Finland and Estonia, Joel Hakamies echoes that view: “It’s looking fairly good for the big picture. Overall it’s been fairly positive from our view.” The main constraint, he says, is uncertainty: “For our planning it would be better if the timeline was set in stone sooner rather than later. Uncertainty always blurs the horizon for investment.”
Hippos ATG, meanwhile, is preparing at full speed. “We are building a Helsinki-based organisation, recruiting experts on product, marketing and customer support,” Koivula says. For Hippos ATG, Finnish liberalisation is not just commercial: “Every euro of profit flows back to Finnish and Swedish horse racing — a model no other operator can offer.”
Ilmivalta sees a wide variety of strategies: “Some operators will establish local organisations while some are planning on operating very much remotely. Some are customising, some trust that their international offering works.” He also expects variety of new and innovative measures in brand-building under advertising constraints.
Marketing: permissive or restrictive?
Advertising rules are emerging as one of the most contested elements of the reform. The government’s responsible advertising clause drew criticism for vagueness, and even the Basic Law Committee questioned whether courts could interpret it effectively.
Nikkinen notes that Finnish media interests are lobbying heavily, while affiliates have been “banned,” leaving an “uneven table.” He warns that traditional media—not online channels—are the dominant source of exposure for consumers, including children.
Operators themselves are split on how restrictive the framework will be. Kindred sees the new rules as “actually quite liberal,” with “plenty of possibilities for operators to make their mark”. Kuismanen, too, believes “almost all channels are available and there are no time limits”.
What Finland means for Europe
Experts that iGB has spoken to agree Finland will not transform the European landscape overnight. “In reality, the wider impact will be limited,” Koivula says. Vähänen and Kuismanen concur.
Yet Finland matters symbolically: it is the first Nordic monopoly to fall since Sweden in 2019, and Norway will be watching closely. As Nikkinen notes, Norway “still maintains a strict monopoly.” Whether Finland succeeds—or struggles—will shape its neighbour’s arguments for years.
More broadly, Ilmivalta expects Europe to move gradually toward harmonisation in the 2030s, driven by black-market control and safer gambling priorities.
A market worth the wait
Finland’s opening is not smooth, nor is it fully defined. But operators appear willing to tolerate uncertainty for a market that remains both lucrative and culturally embedded. “Finland has been and will be an attractive gambling market,” Hakamies says. “Definitely a major opportunity.”
The real test will come not in 2026 or 2027, but in the following years—when Finland must decide whether its lightly armed regulator and incomplete enforcement architecture can deliver the channelisation and consumer protection the reform promises.
For now, the industry waits—impatient, optimistic and already laying its bets.
Operators gear up for Finland’s shift from monopoly to licensed gambling, even as doubts linger over timing and regulatory readiness.