H2 Gambling Capital expects legal US handle on the 2026-27 NFL season to dip 0.8% year on year to $31.4bn (£23.2bn), thanks in part to prediction markets “now taking a meaningful share of legal-state betting activity”.
In fact, platforms offering sports event contracts are predicted to take an estimated $2bn of handle “that would otherwise have been staked with licensed sportsbooks” from August 2026 to February 2027, H2 noted.
Florida is expected to suffer a “much heavier hit” than the competitive, multi-licence states seeing as Hard Rock Bet is the sole online sportsbook in the state.
The market intelligence firm’s proprietary forecast modelling, including Florida, also anticipates gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $3.5bn, a slide of 2% based on the assumption of sportsbooks achieving an average hold.
Fuelled by same game parlays, football hold came in 11.4% last season, compared with 8.6% the previous year, while November 2025 reached 14.0%.
Across the reporting states, so excluding Florida, NFL handle is projected to hit $28.8bn for August to February, which would be a modest 0.4% gain on the previous season. Gross win is expected to be down 0.8% to $3.2bn.
H2, which is owned by EGR parent company Burghclere, noted that that underlying demand is still growing at around 4%, while Missouri will contribute its first full season after legal online sports betting went live last December.
However, the firm said: “Prediction markets are now taking a meaningful share of legal-state betting activity, which we put at 4%-6% of sportsbook handle in the competitive states and far more in Florida, where prediction market operators (including DraftKings and FanDuel) sell sports contracts against a single licensed operator.”
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has also pointed the finger at prediction markets for the negligible growth the trade body expects this football season.
Accusing the likes of Kalshi of “rapidly expanding backdoor sports betting offerings”, the AGA forecasts legal handle of $29.5bn on the NFL this season in the US, a slight increase on the $29.4bn projected last year.
The estimate included pre-season games, the playoffs, Super Bowl and “futures booked as early as March”.
On a month-by-month basis, H2 said the season “will look very different”, with kick-off on 10 September leaving just three NFL Sundays in September compared with four last year.
Meanwhile, Week 17 falls on 1 and 3 January. Therefore, September handle is predicted to slump 26%, while January is expected to jump 37% year on year.
“Both are timing effects that net to zero across the season, but they will dominate the headlines when the September state releases land in October,” H2 noted.
Looking at the bigger picture, handle in the regulated market has grown from $3.8bn in the 2019-20 season to $31.7bn in 2025-26, though H2 highlighted a sharp deceleration of late.
“Last season was therefore the first in which growth had to come almost entirely from the existing footprint, and it barely came at all: handle in the reporting states grew 1%, with a rising hold and the arrival of prediction markets absorbing the underlying demand growth.”
The NFL season kicks off on 10 September with a Super Bowl LX rematch featuring the Seattle Seahawks at the New England Patriots.
On Tuesday, 8 September, retail brokerage Robinhood announced a “landmark multi-year partnership” that involves Crypto.com spinoff OG.com becoming an infrastructure and clearing provider for Robinhood’s prediction markets offering.
EGR recently caught up with the likes of Novig and ProphetX to discuss the pros and cons of the different ways of offering an exchange – and the dangers of falling behind.
To find out more about H2 Gambling Capital’s NFL 2026-27 Season Preview: US Handle and GGR Outlook, please submit this form and one of the team will reach out.
The post Exclusive: H2GC forecasts NFL handle dip this season amid prediction markets threat first appeared on EGR Intel.
Market intelligence business also models a 2% year on year slide in gross win to $3.5bn, based on average sportsbook hold assumptions
The post Exclusive: H2GC forecasts NFL handle dip this season amid prediction markets threat first appeared on EGR Intel.