In August, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) revealed 17.7 million Brazilians had bet via a licensed operator in the first six months of the regulated market. This has raised questions over the legitimacy of some politicians’ arguments that gambling is causing “mass addiction” in Brazil.
In late-August, the SPA released extensive data which revealed the licensed betting market’s GGR reached BRL17.4 billion ($3.2 billion) during H1 2025.
The data also reported 17.7 million Brazilians wagered with licensed operators during the period, equating to around 8.3% of the total population and, crucially, 10.6% of adults in Brazil.
This figure has cast doubt on the argument being championed by some politicians that regulation, despite its nascent status, is driving high levels of gambling addiction in Brazil.
Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, believes the data shows player activity is in line with what you’d expect from a regulated online market.
Birkin says the data “opposes the rhetoric of mass gambling addiction” in Brazil.
“In the Netherlands, we estimate that ~5.4% of the adult population have accounts with legal operators,” Birkin tells iGB. “By contrast, in the UK ~20% of the adult population has an online betting or gaming account.
“So really, this puts Brazil around the level that you’d expect for a ’normal’ amount of online gambling. How much of that is problem gambling is a different question, but it certainly flies against the view of a pandemic of gambling across the nation.”
SPA pushing for data-based regulation
The narrative that regulated online gambling is causing an addiction pandemic in Brazil has led to a number of movements and Senate bills seeking to restrict the licensed sector.
The industry is awaiting a vote on whether the government will make a gambling tax rise permanent. Meanwhile, additional ad restrictions are also under discussion.
The sector has urged politicians to take a data-based approach to regulation and, in the SPA’s H1 data release, its chief, Regis Dudena, echoed those thoughts.
“From here on the debate on the fixed-odds betting market in Brazil can be conducted with even more solid elements, enabling us to advance evidence-based regulation,” Dudena said.
Udo Seckelmann, head of gambling & crypto at Bichara e Motta Advogados, describes this as a “positive development” for the sector.
“For any regulated industry policymaking should be based on evidence and not solely on perception,” says Seckelmann.
“By making market data publicly available and emphasising its use to support regulatory evolution, the SPA signals it is willing to pursue a more technical and transparent dialogue with stakeholders.
“This strengthens regulatory credibility and reduces the risk of measures that could unintentionally harm the sector’s competitiveness.”
The illegal market
Birkin largely agrees with Seckelmann, noting many international law makers set regulations based on “idealistic views or prejudices” rather than data-led analysis.
However, he warns it’s also important to ascertain just how big the illegal market is.
Estimates on the size of Brazil’s black market vary. H2 Gambling Capital believes it makes up around 30% of the total betting sector, while the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming predicts it is between 40% and 60%.
“For me, having a base line of a generally accepted illegal market size is key,” Birkin continues. “The number one aim of regulation should be to bring as many players onshore to gamble in a protected and regulated environment.
“To measure the effectiveness of this, and the impact of existing and proposed regulatory change, you need to be measuring the size of the illegal market and how that’s growing or declining. So releasing legal market data is only part of the job.”
Data release encouraging for Brazil’s nascent sector
While some raised questions over why it took the SPA nearly eight months of regulation to release initial market data, both Seckelmann and Birkin believe this is natural and the data shows Brazil is growing as forecasted.
“The H1 figures published by the SPA are encouraging, as they demonstrate that the regulated market is already consolidating in Brazil,” Seckelmann says.
“The numbers broadly align with the sector’s expectations regarding both volume of bets and tax collection.
“What is most important is that these figures confirm the relevance of the regulated market as a driver of economic activity, job creation and responsible entertainment.”
This transparency, Seckelmann concludes, will strengthen bettors’ trust in the regulated market, perhaps diminishing the appeal of unlicensed offerings.
“When bettors see that the regulated market is generating significant tax revenues, being closely monitored and contributing positively to society, they are more likely to choose legal platforms,” Seckelmann adds.
“The publication of data reinforces the legitimacy of licensed operators, while simultaneously highlighting the risks of offshore platforms that operate outside of Brazilian law.
“In this sense, the SPA’s initiative supports not only public confidence but also the long-term sustainability of the regulated market.”
Brazil’s betting regulator has released data that challenges claims of mass gambling addiction across the country.