Sportradar’s partnership with Kalshi could be key in boosting the prediction market platform’s credibility with US state regulators, according to capital markets and advisory business Citizens.
The New York-listed sports data supplier announced this week that it had entered into a multi-year agreement with Kalshi, becoming the US prediction markets leader’s official data and solutions provider.
The deal will see Sportradar provide Kalshi with official sports data and live odds, real-time content to increase fan engagement, marketing services and access to integrity monitoring across the likes of MLB, NHL, MLS and UFC.
Sportradar will also be able enter into agreements with Kalshi’s key partners, including market makers and brokers.
Although financial terms were not disclosed, the deal is based around a revenue-sharing agreement, as opposed to a fixed-fee model.
News of the tie-up went down well with investors as Sportradar shares on the Nasdaq jumped nearly 10% yesterday, 8 June, to close out the day at $15.26. The stock is up another 4% in pre-market trading.
Rival supplier Genius Sports received a bump on the back of the announcement, with its shares climbing 9%.
Jordan Bender, gaming equity research managing director at Citizens, highlighted in a note the importance of Sportradar’s integrity solutions as part of the agreement.
“We view the Kalshi partnership as a strategically positive development that extends Sportradar’s long-term growth runway and further reinforces its position as the critical infrastructure provider across sports-related trading and wagering ecosystems,” he wrote.
“We believe the inclusion of Sportradar’s integrity solutions is particularly noteworthy. Regulatory oversight remains one of the key challenges facing prediction markets, and embedding integrity monitoring and surveillance capabilities from inception should enhance Kalshi’s credibility with regulators and institutional participants.”
The deal comes at a time when Kalshi faces increasing regulatory heat from the sports betting and gaming industry’s key stakeholders.
Last month, Rhode Island’s Attorney General, Peter Neronha, filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket for “unlawfully” offering sports betting products in the state.
Regulators in Washington, Michigan and Ohio have also hit the pair with preliminary injunctions or fines in recent months for what they argue is the promotion and operation of unlicensed sports betting products.
Bender also touched on the significance of Sportradar being able to replicate the agreement with other prediction market platforms.
He continued: “The agreement broadens Sportradar’s total addressable market without requiring meaningful additional investment. The company can leverage its existing official data rights, technology platform and integrity solutions to serve an entirely new customer category.
“Importantly, the framework established with Kalshi can be replicated across other prediction market operators, but tailored for individual needs.
“Beyond Kalshi itself, Sportradar highlighted opportunities to work with market makers and brokers participating within the ecosystem, potentially expanding its customer base and creating a broader network effect over time.”
Last month, Kalshi achieved a $22bn valuation following a Series F fundraising round which raised $1bn.
Chad Beynon, senior gaming, lodging and theatres analyst at Macquarie Group, said the deal had wider ramifications for prediction markets as a whole.
“The key debate for investors will centre on timing and scalability. Investors should focus on how quickly prediction markets expand from a niche product into a meaningful channel, particularly in the US where regulatory oversight remains uncertain, as well as how monetisation compares to traditional sportsbook data deals in terms of pricing and margins, and if this model can be replicated across additional exchanges and market participants.
“While this announcement reinforces Sportradar’s strategy of embedding itself deeply in data and infra layer of the sports ecosystem, the broader investment case hinges on whether prediction markets evolve into a material new long-term TAM, as long-term regulatory backdrop remains unclear, particularly for sports contracts.”
Last month, Sportradar was hit with a class action lawsuit from investors seeking damages for losses incurred between November 2024 and April 2026.
This followed reports published in April by Muddy Waters Research and Callisto Research, which outlined Sportradar’s alleged links to a network of black-market operators.
The reports by the two short sellers sent Sportradar stock tumbling by nearly a quarter to its lowest level since November 2024.
However, Citizens maintains its price target of $26 for the company, based on a 12x multiple of full-year 2027 EBITDA.
“The company is now beginning to generate real revenue from prediction markets, which is contrary to the bear thesis that prediction markets will have a negative impact on the business,” Bender noted.
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Capital markets and advisory firm suggests data supplier’s integrity monitoring solutions could go some way to appeasing US states, as both parties enter into multi-year agreement
The post Citizens: Sportradar deal will “enhance Kalshi’s credibility with regulators” first appeared on EGR Intel.