Legal retail and online bets on Super Bowl LX is expected to hit $1.5bn (£1bn) across the US, as per new modelling from Citizens.
This year’s NFL finale sees the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
In a note penned by analyst Jordan Bender, projections show that total stakes are set to be down 2% year on year (YoY) versus 2025.
With Missouri the only US state to launch regulated online sports betting since the last Super Bowl in February 2025, Bender also expects overall promotional investment as a percentage of handle to decline YoY as well.
The note added that the decline in stakes is also expected to be “driven by less of a story line this year”.
Last season’s match-up of the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Philadelphia Eagles featured star players Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce – who is engaged to global popstar Taylor Swift.
It was also noted that the continued rise of prediction markets, which Bender said were “already seeing impressive volume on the game”, could have an impact on sportsbook stakes.
Prediction markets platform Kalshi has surpassed $150m in trading for the Super Bowl, while the same market on Polymarket is nearing $700m in trading.
“Overall, the tough hold comp and handle down YoY imply ‘in line’ gaming margins could result in gaming revenue down ~35% for the Super Bowl,” Bender added.
Sports betting remains illegal in California where the Big Game is due to be held.
Moving to app downloads, Citizens’ note stated there were there 523,000 sportsbook app downloads on Super Bowl Sunday last year – 45% more than any other day during 2025.
Commenting on the AFC and NFC Championship games, Bender noted app downloads in the US and Canada remained flat YoY at 780,000.
The app downloads were from operators Flutter, DraftKings, Caesars, MGM Resorts, Rush Street, PENN Entertainment, Fanatics, bet365 and Hard Rock.
DraftKings led the way with 194,000, a 5% YoY increase, with download share of 25% for that week.
The biggest YoY increase saw Hard Rock record a 63% jump in downloads to 120,000, while the biggest fall saw PENN downloads, with its theScore and Hollywood Casino brands, stand at 31,000 – down 33% YoY.
The figures projected by Citizens are at odds with those published by Legal Sports Report (LSR), which estimated Super Bowl LX to generate $1.7bn in legal bets.
Delivered in partnership with the Sports Betting Alliance, the estimates show New York is expected to be the biggest betting state with $171m in handle, despite never previously holding that title.
Last year’s figure of $155m saw the state finish in second place behind New Jersey, which recorded $169m.
LSR projects New Jersey will generate $161m in handle this year.
The post Citizens: Legal Super Bowl LX betting stakes expected to hit $1.5bn first appeared on EGR Intel.
Citizens report projects figure to be down 2% YoY for NFL showpiece event pitting New England Patriots against Seattle Seahawks
The post Citizens: Legal Super Bowl LX betting stakes expected to hit $1.5bn first appeared on EGR Intel.