Following a slower-than-expected December, Seaport Research predicts that Macau gross gaming revenue could grow 19% year-on-year this month.
The rate was “helped by an easy comparison” to January 2025, analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote in a note on Wednesday. Nevertheless, it bodes well for a “solid” first-quarter, with GGR potentially up 14% over last year. “The month has started quite strong – possibly over MOP850 million [US$106 million] per day in the 1-4 January holiday weekend,” Umansky wrote.
GGR increased 14.8% year-on-year in December to MOP20.9 mllion, but it was down 0.9% from November and short of the analyst consensus of 18%. The figure suggested the gaming mecca “might have lost some steam”, according to Bloomberg.
But full-year 2025 saw total GGR of MOP247.4 billion, far exceeding the MOP228 billion projected by Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai. It aligned with the forecast of former chief executive Ho Iat Seng, set in late 2024. At the time, Ho called the estimate “conservative”. The full-year figure represents a recovery of 84.6% versus the pre-pandemic year, which ended at MOP292.5 billion.
Analysts anticipate robust first quarter
Seaport looks for revenue to grow more than 14% in the first quarter, buoyed by the timing of Chinese New Year. The seven-day holiday from 16-22 February includes a weekend, facilitating more visitation to Macau from the mainland.
“Macau remains a secular growth market, driven by an increasing wealth effect in China with high propensity to gamble and increasing travel spend,” Umansky wrote. He foresees a growth rate of 7% for all of 2026.
Deutsche Bank expects revenue to grow 5.8% for the year, for total GGR of MOP261.8 billion. It also is looking for a strong Q1, with analysts projecting a boost of 10.6% year-on-year.
JP Morgan analysts expect GGR to grow by 5%–6% this year, with total GGR ranging from MOP259.8 billion to MOP262.2 billion. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian expect mass and slot revenues to grow 7%-8%, against a VIP decline of about 5%. They also forecast industry profit growth of 6%-7%.
Marjorie Preston
Marjorie began her gaming career in 2007 and has focused on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside of work, she writes about travel and film and plays the drums.
Seaport Research analyst Vitaly Umansky says Macau gross gaming revenue could reach $2.71 billion in January, up 19% year-on-year.