Charles Lee, kwiff CEO
Unknowns in the UK
In 2024, when Rachel Reeves announced in her Autumn Budget a consultation to review bringing remote gambling under a single tax structure for simplification, it seemed predictable that all sports duty (GBD) would be moving up to 21% to match casino and remote gaming duty rates (RGD). Not many predicted the furore that would follow and the final outcome of 40% for RGD and 25% on GBD, as laid out in the 2025 Autumn Budget. There are now a large amount of unknowns in the UK market due to the short-sighted actions of the government. What we do know is that the government has misunderstood the expected impact of increased gambling taxes and this will also be misunderstood and underreported by the mainstream media.
Already we are seeing operators leave the UK and/or look for buyers. We expect to continue to see that casino-first, or poorly structured organisations with a heavily focused UK presence, will start to struggle and either exit the market or get embroiled in low-value M&A. This will result in lower receipts for the government from a previously buoyant M&A market and in ongoing tax receipts as operators will look to invest outside of the UK. There will be a natural contraction of the market as the Office for Budget Responsibility predicts, although we expect it to be larger than the resizing figures announced in their forecast, continuing to underplay the impact of the illegal market. The lack of understanding of the business aspect of UK gambling is shocking.
Who survives and thrives?
Trends already indicate that regulated companies that focus on entertainment, innovation and a great player experience will win in the long term. It is possibly the only way for a UK-focused gaming company to survive in a world where there is such pervasive anti-gambling ideology and rhetoric. In addition to the political climate, there is undoubtedly an appetite from players for differentiated products and features. Higher tax rates have simply sped up the industry’s journey to that outcome. We already see that with kwiff today, and now, more than ever, it will grow and grow. The question of owning your own tech stack also comes to the forefront, the importance of creating seamless journeys, experiences and delivering unrivalled entertainment is only possible by owning it. But get that strategic balance wrong in your budgeting and operators may pay a high price. Get it right and the benefits of cost efficiencies at scale are clear.
A worldwide impact
Looking further afield, we expect to see higher tax rates worldwide following the UK’s lead, since the mainstream media coverage around the Budget largely ignored the impact it will have, it now feels like a freebie for other governments. However, it would be prudent to be watchful and hold for two to three years for two key reasons.
Firstly, to monitor the impact of the tax increases and use data to make the right decision. And secondly, to review the increased competition in territories with lower tax regimes that will inevitably come. Furthermore, operators will need to choose between white or black, as grey markets increasingly disappear. It’s crunch time for operators in the UK and with a global footprint. I am sure many of them hoped the UK government wouldn’t swing open Pandora’s box, but they did.
Aviv Sher, Codere Online CEO
Latam becomes the global growth engine
In 2026 and beyond, Latin America is poised to become the fastest-growing force in the global online gaming industry. As regulatory frameworks in Mexico, Colombia and Argentina stabilise, operators will be in a much better place to adapt to the changes and develop strong growth strategies.
Brazil, emerging from its regulatory infancy, is nicely positioned to transform into a powerhouse market with the potential to rival major mature European jurisdictions. As the landscape settles, the region will attract significant investment, drive innovation tailored to local preferences and generate sustained long-term expansion. Latam will shift from high potential to the unquestioned centre of industry growth.
Europe enters a period of modest growth and regulatory tightening
From 2026 onward, Europe’s igaming sector will continue to experience a slowdown in growth as mature markets face escalating regulatory pressure. Advertising restrictions, tax increases and tighter compliance demands across established European jurisdictions will limit growth opportunities for the industry.
Operators that once enjoyed robust double-digit expansion will instead compete in a defensive landscape defined by restricted marketing, diminishing flexibility and rising operational burdens. Without closer collaboration between regulators and operators, black-market leakage will continue to increase in Europe.
AI-powered personalisation will reshape innovation
In 2026, innovation in the online gaming industry will accelerate behind the scenes, driven primarily by AI-powered personalisation. Operators will invest heavily in technology, including sportsbook engines, CRM platforms and personalisation layers to build vertically integrated product ecosystems.
AI will enable hyper-personalised betting experiences, dynamic odds generation, tailored promotions and automated customer journeys, improving engagement and retention. While frontend product changes may appear incremental, backend intelligence will evolve rapidly, creating more responsive, data-driven platforms. This shift will define the next competitive frontier and help leading operators differentiate in an increasingly crowded marketplace.
The post Industry predictions for 2026: Low-value M&A and Latam becoming the centre of growth first appeared on EGR Intel.
Kwiff CEO Charles Lee and Codere Online boss Aviv Sher lay out how they see 2026 progressing in the igaming industry
The post Industry predictions for 2026: Low-value M&A and Latam becoming the centre of growth first appeared on EGR Intel.