2025 has fundamentally challenged the foundations of the Dutch regulated gambling market. Regulatory ambitions intensified, tax pressure increased, and legal uncertainty surged. Frank Op de Woerd, Editor in Chief CasinoNieuws.nl, takes a look back on a monumental year for Dutch gaming.
Critically, the channelisation rate fell below 50% for the first time since legalisation. More money is now wagered with illegal operators than with licensed ones in the Netherlands. This reversal of original policy objectives has become the defining theme of the year.
A major driver of the changing landscape is the new policy direction from State Secretary Teun Struycken. His proposal prioritises consumer protection, including raising the minimum age for high-risk games from 18 to 21, implementing cross-operator spending limits, and further restricting advertising.
While these ambitions show a desire to tighten control, nothing is set in stone just yet. Several proposals require legislative change, and the national regulator has flagged concerns regarding practicality and market consequences. A new cabinet must now decide how far the Netherlands is willing to go, leaving operators and players facing high uncertainty as 2026 approaches.
Gambling tax increase
Financial pressure on the licensed sector has grown rapidly. On 1 January 2025, the gambling tax jumped from 30.5% to 34.2%, with another rise to 37.8% scheduled for 2026. The trade associations warned that such rapid escalation harms competitiveness and weakens channelisation.
The regulator’s mid-year monitoring report confirmed this: instead of delivering extra revenue, tax income is expected to end the year lower than in 2024. When heavy players move outside the licensed offering, neither public health nor the state budget benefits.
The most alarming sign was the collapse of channelisation on gross gaming revenue (GGR). The share of player spending reaching licensed operators dropped below 50% and continues to slide.
A growing group of consumers has concluded that legal platforms are no longer attractive due to lower limits, higher taxes, and the removal of popular products. If the Netherlands cannot regain the confidence of high-value players, the regulated market risks losing its rationale.
Legal disputes
Alongside financial strain came a wave of legal disputes. Numerous players sued operators for pre-legalization losses, claiming that contracts were invalid.
Following conflicting lower court rulings, the Supreme Court was asked for guidance. In November, the Advocate General advised that the absence of a Dutch license did not automatically invalidate contracts.
This surprised observers, as similar claims had succeeded in neighbouring markets such as Germany and Austria. Although the Supreme Court will give its final answer in 2026, the opinion has shifted expectations, offering operators hope for an end to litigation.
Inflection point
The Dutch market has reached an inflection point. The 2021 framework aimed to create a safe, attractive alternative to the black market. In 2025, the balance tilted. Stricter protection measures and higher taxation created risks for the very system designed to protect consumers. A course correction seems needed.
All these developments unfold in a changed political landscape. The coalition that introduced the Remote Gambling Act has long been dissolved. The yet-to-be-formed new government must decide how to balance the priorities.
Policymakers want to protect vulnerable players, maintain tax income, keep the legal market viable, and ensure that channelisation improves. The events of 2025 show that progress in one area can cause setbacks in another. The challenge in 2026 is to restore balance.
If 2026 brings legal clarity, a stable tax regime, and a measured approach to restrictions, the market could find its footing. If not, the shift toward unlicensed operators may accelerate, testing whether the Netherlands can realign good intentions with real-world behaviour. As things stand, the latter seems more likely than the former.
2025 has fundamentally challenged the foundations of the Dutch regulated gambling market. Regulatory ambitions intensified, tax pressure increased, and legal uncertainty surged. Frank Op de Woerd, Editor in Chief CasinoNieuws.nl, takes a look back on a monumental year for Dutch gaming. Critically, the channelisation rate fell below 50% for the first time since legalisation. More …