State-owned bank Caixa Econômica Federal has pushed back the launch of its betting offering amid pressure from the Brazil government.
After its authorisation to operate in the newly regulated Brazil online gambling market was formalised in July, Caixa set a November date for the launch of its betting offering.
However, the plans received political criticism, as Senator Damaras Alves launched a scathing attack on Caixa in October, describing its plans as a “contradictory, dangerous and profoundly irresponsible move”.
This attracted the ire of Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who then met with Caixa President Carlos Vieira to discuss the matter.
According to local news outlet O Globo, Caixa has now decided to delay its planned November launch, with no new date given.
Vieira previously estimated Caixa’s betting business would achieve revenues of between BRL2 billion (£371.8 million) and BRL2.5 billion in 2026, in its first full year of operation.
The licence covers three brands: BetCaixa, Megabet and Xbet Caixa. The company did not respond to iGB’s request for comment on the delay.
What does this mean for Caixa and the market?
Caixa’s plans to launch betting also raised questions around competition, with concerns over whether a state-owned entity should be involved in the market considering the potential for government influence.
As an example, Vieira had previously described a potential rise in the gambling tax rate from 12% to 18% as “reasonable”, going against the opinions of the majority of the regulated sector.
Fabio Ferreira Kujawski, partner at Brazilian law firm Matthos Filho, expects this comment stems from Caixa’s difficult position, in which it “cannot publicly oppose what the federal government is saying”.
Atucha has warned Caixa’s delayed launch highlights various “contradictions” within Brazil’s regulatory landscape, with the government seemingly halting Caixa’s entrance into what is now a legal activity.
“With rising taxes, political debate and public backlash, the move risks undermining the regulated market itself,” the LatAm iGaming expert tells iGB.
“Instead of fostering a sustainable, competitive environment, these actions may end up strengthening the position of unlicensed, offshore operators, precisely the opposite of what regulation is meant to achieve.”
Questions over Caixa’s potential
Vieira has voiced his hopes Caixa will become a “major player” in the regulated Brazil betting market.
Caixa holds a legacy federal lottery monopoly, and its status as a state-owned bank means it should have strong brand recognition as a trusted entity in Brazil.
However, H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin doesn’t expect Caixa to be at the very top of the market, despite its existing lottery player base.
“I do not believe that they will be one of the number one operators,” Birkin told iGB earlier this month. “Lotteries have never done particularly well against commercial operators in the online betting and iGaming market.”
Birkin describes Vieira’s estimate of 2026 revenues between BRL2 billion and BRL2.5 billion as “highly ambitious”, with the upper band of that prediction placing Caixa at a market share of 7.5%, according to H2 data.
“It would be completely unheard of for a lottery operator to get to a podium position, or even a top five position in a commercial market,” Birkin explained.
However, Caixa may not need to invest as heavily in marketing as other operators entering the Brazilian market, since it can leverage its established lottery brand and possibly its existing player database.
This advantage, Birkin suggests, is one reason Caixa is likely to run a profitable betting operation.
“In terms of the financials, they can be profitable with a much lower market share than other people in the market,” Birkin said.
“They already have all the land-based network there, they already do have online operations. So it financially makes sense for them. It should very much be additive to their earnings. The financials are more compelling than they would be for commercial operators.”
LatAm iGaming expert Ramiro Atucha has warned Caixa’s delayed launch highlights various “contradictions” within Brazil’s regulatory landscape.