As the four-year anniversary of the Dutch regulated online gambling market approaches, those involved in protecting its integrity would have hoped it would be in a better position by now. Since going live on 1 October 2021, following the enactment of the Remote Gambling Act (KOA) six months beforehand, the nation’s legal market has had its fair share of problems connected to tightening regulatory measures.
There may be an ironic element to the fact that one of Europe’s most progressive nations, whose relationship with gambling dates back to 1726 with the launch of one of the world’s oldest lotteries, Staatsloterij, has imposed so many rules on its commercial market that its viability has been called into question. In fact, some operators have handed back their licences, notably tombola and LiveScore Bet, two of the original 10 brands on the starting line when the market first went live. What’s more, Betsson blamed regulator delays this summer for its decision to abandon plans to re-enter the Dutch market despite making two acquisitions to achieve that aim.
Four years on and there are now 31 licensees, including international operators such as FDJ United-owned Unibet, bet365 and LeoVegas, alongside the government-operated domestic duo of Nederlandse Loterij’s TOTO brand and omnichannel operator Holland Casino. Yet for those struggling to gain a foothold, the prospect of gaining ground looks to be an increasingly difficult task amid a slew of government-backed measures; measures that only the largest operators seem more equipped to be able to cope with.
Meanwhile, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the body tasked with overseeing the regulated market, hasn’t always echoed the sentiments of those in government. The authority has a big task on its hands when it comes to ensuring the market remains viable for its licensees.
Tax troubles
Arguably the most pertinent issue facing operators in the regulated Dutch market comes in the form of the two-phase tax hike. In September 2024, the country’s now-disbanded right-wing coalition government announced plans to increase the duty in two stages. The first came at the turn of the calendar year, with 1 January 2025 signalling a rise from 30.5% to 34.2% on gross gambling revenue (GGR). Next comes an increase to 37.8% at the start of 2026. That would ensure the Netherlands has one of the most burdensome tax regimes in Europe.
It is a decision that has been met with significant backlash from several operators, including Holland Casino, which labelled the move “irresponsible” and insisted the rise makes investment and innovation “virtually impossible”. It has been cited as a factor in the withdrawal of multiple operators from the market, including Flutter-owned tombola and LiveScore Group in 2024.
LiveScore Group CEO Sam Sadi says: “From the early days of the market opening, regulators and legislators have continuously introduced not only tax increases but also other very costly and unforeseen regulatory processes. Changing regulations so abruptly completely altered the market conditions and viability.”
The LiveScore Group boss believes that only the largest operators in the market are able to absorb the regulatory hits. Sadi’s assessment is supported by the public statements of France’s FDJ United. The parent company of market leader Unibet is one of the very few operators to claim it has managed to weather the regulatory headwinds buffeting the Netherlands.
Reflecting on the operator’s H1 2025 performance, CFO Pascal Chaffard told analysts FDJ United had “stabilised” its numbers in the country. Sanna van Doorn, FDJ’s country manager for the Netherlands, adds: “We are currently focusing on optimising our customer experience, making our platforms as seamless and engaging as possible while staying compliant with regulatory requirements. Acting on player feedback has helped us maintain stability in a competitive environment – and that principle will be essential going forward.”
The company’s chairwoman and CEO Stéphane Pallez commented: “It’s really how we can stabilise the situation and implement in the most efficient way the affordability, the controls that we have to put in place and we’ve been progressing on that […] As a matter of fact, in the Netherlands the figures that have been published show that this illegal market has grown to a very, very high percentage, which should not be an incentive for the regulator to become more stringent – on the contrary. But we don’t expect it to move in a positive way.”
The KSA has conceded efforts to boost tax revenue will almost certainly have the opposite effect. However, it remains to be seen whether those hikes in igaming duty will be revisited after the coalition government’s collapse. The first phase of the tax rise to 34.2% has fallen short of expectations, contributing to a €200m (£173.8m) loss of revenue for H1 2025 when pitted against H1 2024. The government received 83% of the tax revenue it earned from the sector in 2024.
The Netherlands risks becoming a case study of how not to tax the sector. In August, evoke CFO Sean Wilkins highlighted the Dutch market as a warning to a UK government mulling whether to raise taxes. He made it clear that a tax hike almost always leads to a boost for the black market and, therefore, less player protection. Wilkins insisted this is “not speculation – this is evidenced in the Netherlands”.
Independent research firm Regulus Partners issued a brutal assessment of the situation in late August, outlining the bleak knock-on effect the tax hike has had on the market’s net revenue (a 25% year-on-year fall, as per the firm’s estimates). Regulus claimed policymakers in the Netherlands have achieved the opposite of what they intended, with the tax rise posing a threat to land-based gambling and fuelling a surge in the black market. It noted: “Dutch gamblers have not turned their back on their pastime – they have turned their back on their government’s self-defeating policies.”
Wet blanket
Elsewhere, speculation surrounding the prospect of a blanket ban on gambling advertising continues to linger. The KSA’s head of market supervision, Renske Fiklers, fanned the flames in June at the Gaming in Holland conference: “I still see far too often that advertising rules are not being properly followed. The subsequent outrage over this makes a total ban on advertising an increasingly realistic option. Which is still undesirable as far as the KSA is concerned.”
Teun Struycken, the former minister responsible for gambling in the Netherlands, has previously gone on record to state he will consider tightening ad restrictions further if it is “desirable”. However, the likelihood of a blanket ad ban is played down by lawyer Justin Franssen, head of the Gaming & Gambling division at Amsterdam-based law firm Franssen Tolboom. He believes even lawmakers are beginning to recognise the drawbacks of overregulation.
Such a ban would be a severe blow to challenger brands, which would have to engage with an audience without being able to advertise their services – a challenge that Franssen deems “impossible”.
“I would be really surprised if that [blanket ad ban] happens,” he says, “especially since we’re now seeing that tax revenue generated from gambling is on the decline [and] operators are handing back their licences. There is the realisation, at least with some politicians, that all these restrictive measures have their limits. It is possible, but I don’t see it as a super-viable option at this stage.”
For all the talk of a blanket ban, that’s not to say significant measures haven’t already been taken. In July, all gambling sponsorships of sports clubs were outlawed. The scope of the ban extends beyond just shirt sponsorships, covering operators looking to secure promotional deals with not only sports clubs, but also leagues, tournaments and individual athletes. The development marked the latest step taken by the government to tackle gambling ad-related issues, though the efforts date back to June 2023 when the first phase of restrictions was implemented.
Two years ago, the Dutch government banned all untargeted ads from TV, radio, newspapers and magazines, before the scope of the ban was later expanded to include all public places. A year later, operators were also prevented from sponsoring TV programmes and events. The lesser known ‘95% rule’ is one of the market’s standout failures when it comes to moderating gambling adverts, according to Frank Op de Woerd, CEO of Dutch affiliate and online gambling news outlet CasinoNieuws. The measure means any company promoting licensed services ensures 95% of those viewing the ads are 24-years-old or over, a rule he describes to EGR as “unenforceable”.
“The 95% rule failed because there’s no real way to prove it. We’re still sending our reports every month, but let’s say we have 17 legal online casino partners. We send 17 reports to our 17 operators, and these 17 operators are sending those 17 reports to the regulator. For my websites alone, the regulator needs to go over 17 reports, but I have 11 websites, so there’s obviously hundreds of these. It’s unenforceable and was doomed to fail,” Op de Woerd says.
It is evident that continued scrutiny surrounding advertising is one of the largest thorns in the sides of licensees. Van Doorn explains: “Stricter rules will lead to reduced visibility of licensed operators, which can create a ‘waterbed effect’, where restrictions in the legal market create room for unlicensed offerings. Further tightening of the rules will undermine a healthy licensed gambling market that is required for consumer protection.”
Offshore win
While an established robust regulatory framework is the hallmark of any successful legal market, history would suggest the more measures enforced, the greater the risk of a fall in channelisation and a surge in illegal activity. A lack of understanding about this has come at a reputational cost to the Dutch market, according to Op de Woerd. He argues a lack of vocal advocates for the industry within government has also hindered development for a market he expected to be “more mature” four years in.
“The reputation [of the Dutch market] is worse than it was four years ago, and that has resulted in more adjustments and measures in regulation,” he says. “Nobody in our government was willing to fight for the regulated markets or trying to make people understand a regulated market was better than the illegal alternative, or that a lot of these measures are restricting the legal market. It’s disappointing to see so much restructuring of the law. There weren’t opponents to it and that’s a reflection of how online gambling is looked at in Dutch society. That’s the takeaway of the four years.”
The black market continues to loom large, with the country’s channelisation rate plummeting to 50% (based on GGR) for the second half of 2024, as per figures from the KSA. That latest estimate marks an eight-percentage point decrease from the 58% in H1 of last year.
FDJ United’s Van Doorn says: “Evidence shows [online] advertising for ‘casinos without limits’ has become more common, targeting players frustrated with restrictions in the legal market. As a result, GGR generated by the black market has grown, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the channelisation objectives underpinning current legislation.”
In addition to the rise in tax and the advertising restrictions, a whole range of regulatory interventions are affecting channelisation. In October 2024, new thresholds linked to each user’s net monthly deposits and their age were introduced. Those between 18 and 25 could not exceed a net deposit of €300 per month. Any further deposit attempts are blocked by the operator until the end of the calendar month. For the over 25s, the limit is €700. Those looking to deposit beyond their respective cap are required to contact the operator directly and undergo affordability checks.
The limits have led to complex results. On the one hand, a recent KSA report detailed that the measure inspired a 31% decline in monthly player losses, falling from €116 prior in the eight months leading up to the rule change to €80 in the eight months that followed. Gamblers losing over €1,000 per month decreased to 1% from 4% during the reporting period. There was no fall in the average number of accounts each player is registered to (2.4). For all the positive signs, there is concern the figures tell a different story entirely, one that involves players being pushed towards the black market because of the limits.
The KSA itself conceded it has seen a spike in searches for illegal gambling websites, noting there is plenty of room for improvement when it comes to tackling the threat of illegal operators.
Michel Groothuizen, chair of the Dutch regulator, tells EGR: “Is the amount of money going into the illegal market a real concern? Yes. Are we effective enough in [stopping] that field? No, not at all. The traditional judicial steps we can take, like fines, were in the beginning rather effective. But what we see is that the [unlicensed] companies are more difficult for us to stop every year. It started with places in Europe, but now they are in Colombia or Costa Rica. It’s very hard for us to get a grip on them.”
A lack of oversight on illegal suppliers is also a cause for concern according to Groothuizen, who adds: “In the UK, you must have a licence to supply to operators, but that is not the case with us – though I am very much in favour of such a development as well.”
Meanwhile, Dutch MPs voting last year to ban online slots in the country would have been music to the ears of unlicensed sites. Some politicians deem slots to be conducive to gambling-related harm and want to see them removed from licensed sites and apps. Understandably, the motion was met by fierce opposition from the regulated industry.
At the time, Nils Andén, then Kindred Group CEO (now FDJ United’s chief betting and gaming officer), argued the ban would compromise the very reason a regulated market was launched. He told analysts at the firm’s Q1 2024 earnings presentation that the main motivation for a legal offering is to “drive channelisation, increase tax revenues and ensure there is a good level of [player] protection”, before adding: “This motion goes directly against all those objectives – but we will have to wait and see what the government says.” Nearly 18 months later, we are still awaiting an update from the Dutch government.
Despite this uncertainty and the ever-tightening regulations, the Netherlands recently welcomed back a high-profile operator in the shape of evoke-owned 888. The brand had been active in the country prior to regulation but departed four years ago after opting against applying for a licence. Now, via a partnership with ComeOn Group, which will operate the site via its Dutch licence, 888.nl will offer local players online casino and sports betting. Those overseeing the market will view it as a vote of confidence in the Netherlands, with evoke confident its brand can overcome the host of challenges every licensee currently faces.
888’s return came just weeks before the KSA’s new rules for granting remote licences. The regulator has asked licensees to keep it informed of the effect of all policy and operational changes, and to write an exit plan detailing how the operator will withdraw its offerings if a permit is allowed to expire. Licensees can also expect follow-up inspections from the KSA, with areas such as addiction prevention policy reassessed.
It is impossible to ignore the dwindling morale. Franssen’s prediction of where the Dutch legal sector is heading is one that finds little room for hope, as he believes the number of regulatory changes will spark greater consolidation and fewer active operators in the space.
“The larger operators will remain in the market. But the smaller ones are either going to sell their business or not renew their licence because it’s no longer viable,” he says, before noting the offshore issue is showing little sign of abating. “This industry is so shrewd in circumventing regulatory blockades. The black market will always be there.”
The post Clogged by compliance: exploring four years of the legal online Dutch gambling market first appeared on EGR Intel.
Legal online gambling launched in the Netherlands four years ago, yet since then the market has been marred by what industry figures say is “overregulation” that shows little sign of subsiding against a backdrop of tax hikes, deposit caps and advertising restrictions
The post Clogged by compliance: exploring four years of the legal online Dutch gambling market first appeared on EGR Intel.