Macau gaming is riding a tide of success, with gross gaming revenue of MOP163.1 (US$20.3 billion) for the first eight months of 2025. Jefferies analysts expect the momentum to build through September into Golden Week, the Chinese national holiday that begins 1 October.
Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei report that Macau GGR for 1-7 September was up 10% year on year – a trend they expect to continue. They credited “rich entertainment events, new properties, more incentives to players and appreciating asset values” as boosters. They also attributed the uptick to a “new wealth” segment: consumers with more discretionary income and the willingness to spend it.
“We expect these drivers to continue to fuel GGR growth for the rest of the year,” wrote Ling and Pei. They project growth of 13.8% for the third quarter, 15.3% for the fourth quarter and 9.5% for 2025.
Jefferies has revised its full-year forecast from MOP237 billion to MOP248 billion, versus the conservative government estimate of MOP228 billion. Longer term, the bank foresees growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Superstars, side bets propel Macau GGR
Citigroup analysts agree that big-name entertainers like Jacky Cheung and Eason Chan “appeal to bigger players and boost GGR”.
“This is why casino operators are strategically organising some heavyweight events after Golden Week,” wrote George Choi and Timothy Chau. That includes the NBA China Games, to be held 10-12 October at the Venetian Arena, and Jackson Wang concerts on 11-12 October at the Galaxy Arena.
“If these events are successful in boosting gaming volumes post-Golden Week, our October GGR forecast of MOP$23 billion (US$2.86 billion) could prove conservative,” the Citigroup analysts said.
In addition, the “increasing popularity” of baccarat side bets “are enhancing casino hold rates” for Macau operators. “Our [premium-mass] table survey has been telling us since April that gaming demand – especially premium mass – remains robust,” the analysts wrote.
Citigroup has raised its 2025 GGR forecast “from +7% to +10%” to MOP248.6 billion. That suggests “a +14% year-on-year growth for the rest of the year”. It has also raised its 2026 GGR forecast “from +5% [year on year] to +7%”, to MOP265.5 billion.
The Macau casino industry has posted solid results in early September, with gross revenue up 10% year on year, according to Jefferies.