Prediction markets are fast becoming the most significant talking point in the US gambling industry. At the Bank of America Securities Gaming & Lodging Conference on September 4, 2025, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins and MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle offered starkly different perspectives on whether the emerging sector represents an opportunity or a distraction.
Robins said: “The most important question is where is the space going to evolve… we’re getting a lot of information at the federal level that this is here to stay.”
Hornbuckle countered that “it invites the federal government into a space it’s never been, and it’s not a place we’d like to see this marketplace go. Full stop.”
DraftKings: Watching, Waiting, Preparing
Robins told investors that DraftKings sees prediction markets as potentially valuable in states without legalized sports betting.
Robins, who gave California and Texas as examples, stated: “We would view both the revenue opportunity as well as the place where we could not have as much risk … by largely focusing on places that don’t have online sports betting for anything that resembles sports.”
Still, he cautioned against rushing.
“Why make an announcement before you have to do anything? … We have to make sure we have the right thing and be prepared to do it. When all that happens, we’ll announce it.”
On the structural challenges of exchanges, Robins said: “We are able to place limits on sharps and other people… and that is the only reason we’re able to offer the variety of bets.” By contrast, “on an exchange, anyone can fill that order.”
He also said: “The opportunity for prediction markets in states that do have legal online sportsbooks is likely to be fairly small.”
He cited the United Kingdom, where exchanges are earning a “single-digit percentage” of revenue.
Beyond watching, DraftKings might be preparing more actively. In July, rumors swirled that the company was in acquisition talks with federally licensed Railbird Exchange.
If true, it could bypass its path into prediction markets by acquiring a Designated Contract Market (DCM) that is already approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Notably, DraftKings applied for a CFTC license but withdrew the application in April. One likely reason is that the licensing process can take several years.
MGM Resorts: A Hard Pass
Hornbuckle took a sharper line, rejecting prediction markets as an unnecessary detour. He admitted the company would monitor developments. “We’re going to watch. We’d be foolish not to. … But officially, it is not something we endorse.”
Hornbuckle also downplayed international success stories. He noted that in the UK, prediction markets account for “under 10% market share,” and that operators “get beat up a lot.”
It’s worth noting that sports betting is available throughout the UK. Also, the country is among the most mature markets globally.
Wider Industry Context
DraftKings’ cautious approach comes as rivals are already making plans to enter the segment.
FanDuel has already unveiled plans to enter the prediction markets via a partnership with CME Group. The operator aims to launch the platform before the end of the year. However, it will not initially offer contracts for sports events. It is likely to wait on regulatory developments before deciding whether to offer those contracts.
Underdog, known for its daily fantasy sports platform, recently announced a partnership with Crypto.com to offer sports prediction markets in 16 states across the US, primarily where sports betting is currently illegal.
The product leverages Underdog’s fantasy Pick’Em experience and Crypto.com’s federally licensed moneyline markets, enabling sports parlay-style action in states such as California and Texas.
Other operators, such as Fanatics and PrizePicks, have joined the National Futures Association (NFA). That indicates their intention to develop prediction products.
The interest in prediction markets is not surprising. The NFL opening weekend resulted in over $300 million in trading volume on Kalshi. Sports accounted for 95% of that. Sunday alone brought in $196 million, with the Ravens vs. Bills Sunday night showdown drawing an impressive $35.6 million.
That surge rivaled Kalshi’s Election Day activity and highlighted the scale prediction markets can achieve in sports.
That competitive landscape raises the stakes for DraftKings. While Robins insists the company will only move when ready, the operator risks losing early ground to rivals who are framing prediction markets as both a customer acquisition tool and a hedge against regulatory patchwork.
A Mirror or a Threat?
While prediction markets split opinions, they could provide a mirror rather than a competition to sportsbooks where traditional betting cannot reach.
In states where legalization’s hopes are slim, such as Texas, prediction markets can fill the void. They can give operators a means to reach an untapped audience.
For Robins, they represent a frontier worth surveying, but only with the right tools in hand. For Hornbuckle, they risk drawing unwanted federal scrutiny into a business that has thrived under state-by-state regulation.
As platforms like Kalshi expand and rivals like FanDuel experiment with prediction market partnerships, the divide between curiosity and caution may define how—and whether—US gambling giants engage with this emerging sector.
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Prediction markets are fast becoming the most significant talking point in the US gambling industry. At the Bank of America Securities Gaming & Lodging Conference on September 4, 2025, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins and MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle offered starkly different perspectives on whether the emerging sector represents an opportunity or a distraction. Robins
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