The Macau gaming industry just checked off another winning month. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP22.15 billion (US$2.76 billion) for August. That represents a 12.2% year-on-year increase and a 0.13% uptick over July, beating the government’s projection of MOP19 billion per month.
According to Seaport Research, August was the “strongest GGR post-Covid and the third consecutive month with double-digit y/y growth”.
A US-China trade deal would “further boost consumer confidence and willingness to spend and travel to Macau,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky. “And any improvement in China consumer confidence would help drive overnight base mass recovery.”
In 2024, the government set a GGR target of MOP240 billion for 2025. Following a slow start to the year, cautious officials reset the projected total to MOP228 billion, implying annual growth of just 0.5%, well below earlier estimates of almost 6%.
Stronger second half under way
Macau casinos were “busier than usual amid seasonality” in August, Morgan Stanley analysts noted. Hotel rooms were hard to come by, with occupany as high as 90%, per the DICJ. Business was lifted by non-gaming attractions including concerts and sporting events. The Morgan Stanley team forecasts a 15% year-on-year rise in GGR for the second half, reports Macao News.
The current rally could slow somewhat in September, when the city typically sees a lag in visitation. But Umansky estimates 13% year-on-year growth for the month, “driven by increased marketing, continued ease of money outflows and robust visa issuance”.
Looking ahead, Seaport expects 6.5% growth in 2026 and 7% growth in 2027, “helped by increasing hotel occupancy, a stronger base-mass recovery and supply increases”.
In April, investment bank JP Morgan downgraded its GGR forecast for the year, citing “mounting macro headwinds” including the US-China trade war. In a note Monday, however, its analysts were downright bullish. They said Macau is in an “upcycle” propelled by positive wealth effects, rising consumer confidence and regional stock rallies.
“We expect strong momentum to continue for some time,” the team said.
August was the strongest month for gross gaming revenue in Macau since Covid-19. Easing tensions between the US and China could further buoy the numbers.