A recent publication by The Lancet Public Health Commission emphasizes a familiar narrative: gambling poses a significant public health concern. As someone deeply involved in the UK gambling scene, I’ve become adept at analyzing reports of this kind.
What’s striking about this report, dated November 2024, is its extensive global perspective. It delves into well-known markets like the US, Belgium, Australia, Germany, and Ontario, Canada. Notably, it also assesses the public health impact of gambling in various sub-Saharan African nations, as well as more unexpected markets such as Bangladesh, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Myanmar, and Namibia.
The affiliate industry, often referred to as the ‘Good Ship Affiliate,’ has built its renown on skillfully maneuvering around regulatory scrutiny, either by adhering to compliance demands in established markets or by exploring new, uncharted territories.
Both approaches are facing significant macroeconomic challenges. While regulation promotes fierce competition initially advantageous to pioneering affiliates, it eventually leads to intense rivalries. Once lucrative, the markets are either becoming tougher to explore—like the US in 2024—or facing backlash due to excessive advertising, which leads to stricter regulations and decreased profit margins.
Look at the UK, Belgium, Germany, or even Brazil in 2025. Even Brazil, known for its vibrant market, is experiencing setbacks with looming restrictions on customer acquisition strategies over the next year.
I’ve been in the industry long enough to remember the decline of poker affiliations. This downfall was largely due to the overabundance of rakeback deals, which damaged the operator-affiliate-player ecosystem, compounded by the UIGEA’s negative impact. This was the first instance in the ‘Affiliate Race to the Bottom.’
After a few insignificant sequels, we arrived in the post-PASPA era of online sports betting in the US. Prominent affiliate groups flourished, becoming the stock market’s darlings on the heels of lucrative state launches.
The industry prospered, initially embracing regulations to great approval from the markets. For a time, it was smooth sailing.
However, the pace of new state launches slowed, searches on platforms like Google flagged issues, and companies like XL Media, Catena Media, and Better Collective had to recalibrate growth expectations, often letting go of assets or staff to stabilize.
Public affiliate companies in regulated markets have reasons to worry. The US market is chaotic, even with anticipation of Missouri opening up in 2025—a complex market on its own. Despite potential for state launches, the US may not be a secure bet for affiliates compared to a select few operators and providers.
There’s always been a promising horizon in the igaming affiliate world, highlighting upcoming markets alongside stable ones like the regulated UK, and pre-regulated bastions like Sweden and Germany. Norway and Finland were also reliable revenue sources.
However, pre-regulated markets are dwindling. Surprisingly, many affiliates now look to the emergence of social casino sweepstakes for growth.
An industry once characterized by confidence might now appear desperate—like shifting from a leisurely cruise to a turbulent, uncertain jet-ski ride.
Previously, market upheavals in the affiliate sector were cushioned by reliable markets and the allure of potential new profits. This time, I’m not assured that we can rest easy.
### Navigating Current Challenges
The Lancet report suggests that even in remote, pre-regulated markets, authorities are learning quickly from history and addressing public health issues with resolve—more than industry insiders recognize.
Future regulations will likely reduce margins and limit product functionality and marketing efficacy, curtailing growth opportunities and potentially increasing black market activities.
So, where does the igaming affiliate industry head next? The corporate evolution of entities like Better Collective and Gambling.com Group has been impressive. They’ve effectively communicated the profitability of affiliate marketing to wider audiences including the stock market.
Yet, I’m skeptical about how many more Wall Street successes there will be. Tightly latching onto regulated markets with increased bureaucratic burdens seems risky, especially as reliable growth might now lie within the relatively uncertain domain of crypto casinos.
This landscape, of course, can rapidly change, illustrating a critical point.
Affiliates have historically excelled by quickly adapting to market shifts, leveraging agility to seize opportunities before others notice. This flexibility is why operators still depend heavily on this sector for growth.
However, maintaining agility becomes challenging as companies grow in size and complexity.
The goal is to create a streamlined affiliate business that navigates these challenging waters, recognizing that taking safety for granted is unwise.
*Tom Galanis is CEO of TAG Media, an esteemed igaming affiliate marketing agency. They provide a range of digital marketing products and services to acquire customers for online casinos, sports betting operators, and game developers globally.*
The post “Navigating the Prevailing Trade Winds Buffeting the Affiliate Sector” originally appeared on EGR Intel.