Robinhood has announced that more than 12 billion event contracts were traded on its platform in 2025, as chair and CEO Vlad Tenev hailed predictions markets as the “fastest-growing business in our history”.
Trading volume more than doubled in the fourth quarter, the retail brokerage revealed on its latest earnings call, while over four million contracts have been exchanged since the turn of the year.
Robinhood, which launched prediction markets in late 2024 and expanded into sports last August, said the product achieved a run rate north of $300m in its first year.
An effervescent Tenev told analysts: “I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction markets super-cycle that could add trillions in annual volume over time.”
He also highlighted how customer behaviour and appetite for event contracts continues to surprise the team at the Nasdaq-listed firm.
“I think there were questions industry-wide about what would happen as the NFL season comes to a close, but what we’re actually seeing is a surprise to us,” he continued.
“In January, for instance, NBA contracts surpassed NFL in trading activity on our platform. And you’re also seeing relevant non-sports contracts generating significant volume.
“For example, in the week after the NFL season ended, the government shutdown contract on our prediction markets platform was driving significant volume. So, I think over the long run, […] prediction markets are more than sports.”
The CEO also pointed to this being “a big year” for prediction markets, with the Winter Olympics currently taking place in Italy and the World Cup staged this summer in the US, Canada and Mexico.
The growth in prediction markets has meant the firm is working on enhancing the customer experience across app design and personalisation, Tenev noted.
“We’ve been adding so many account types, lots more capabilities that it’s becoming increasingly important to chisel the user interface, making sure we are putting the right things in front of the right customers,” he added.
Tenev also highlighted how the goal is to have “better cross-asset linking” between equities, crypto and prediction markets.
“If you’re a first-time prediction markets customer, we not only make it easier for you to get into the product but also make it so we can easily cross-sell you to things like retirement or other products.
“I think that’s an area where we have a unique advantage being a super app,” the CEO pointed out.
Since its launch ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, Robinhood’s prediction markets infrastructure has been powered by US market leader Kalshi, which also works with the likes of Coinbase and PrizePicks.
Robinhood, which introduced a dedicated Prediction Markets Hub almost a year ago, is thought to drive a significant proportion – perhaps more than 50% – of Kalshi’s trading volume.
However, the retail brokerage recently formed a joint venture, Rothera, in partnership with quantitative trading and technology business Susquehanna International Group to operate an exchange and clearing house regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The pair recently acquired MIAXdx, a designated contract market and clearing house, with the aim of also serving CFTC-licensed futures commission merchants with futures and derivative market products.
Robinhood’s CFO, Shiv Verma, said on the earnings call that Rothera was aiming for “the middle of this year” for a launch.
Part of this deal is about taking control of the product, or “vertical control over the whole ecosystem”, as Tenev put it, alongside plans to integrate predictions markets into equities on the Robinhood app.
“So that if you’re considering investing in an equity, you get the whole picture of not just the options contracts but the prediction markets that are connected,” Tenev pointed out when responding to an analyst’s question.
The CEO stressed that the Rothera JV will provide greater autonomy over the contracts listed, as well as pricing and economics.
He said: “The exchange layer is increasingly going to get commoditised over time, just as you’ve seen in other asset classes. What we’d like to do is optimise for the outcome that’s best for customers.
“So, we want to make sure that customers get the best price, the best economics, the best experience, and I think Rothera is a big critical part of us driving that.”
At a top level, Robinhood reported record group revenue of $4.5bn in 2025, including a new high quarterly high of $1.28bn for the final three months of the year.
There were also new records last year for net deposits, profits and trading volumes.
Despite the positive results and growth, Robinhood shares slid more than 7% in after-hours trading in New York yesterday.
The post Robinhood: Prediction markets are the “fastest-growing business in our history” first appeared on EGR Intel.
Retail brokerage reveals volumes more than doubled in Q4 2025, while over four billion event contracts have been traded on its platform so far this year
The post Robinhood: Prediction markets are the “fastest-growing business in our history” first appeared on EGR Intel.